Welcome to the 4th of July slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Reds vs. the Phillies and the Cardinals vs. the Cubs.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Red Sox vs. Nationals tilt at 11:06 AM Eastern Time in our nation's capital. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for Friday. Best of luck, and Happy Independence Day.
Oddsmakers are favoring Boston by a little bit in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Red Sox as a -116 favorite on the road in DC. That's still where the price sits as we write this on Thursday afternoon.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a moderate amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 8.5 runs, which seems kind of low with neither team trotting out an ace on the hill.
It's kind of sad to see what has happened to Lucas Giolito. The 30-year-old righty used to be pretty dominant a few years ago when he was with the White Sox. He's looked okay at times this season, but his stuff hasn't been anywhere near as electric as it used to be.
Giolito still gets a lot of extension on his pitches, so his fastball plays higher than what it hits on the gun (93 mph). However, his main problem lately has been hanging his off-speed pitches. That could come back to bite him on Friday morning against the Nats.
All of that being said, Giolito has been on one heck of a run here lately. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, so Washington will have to find ways to generate some runs.
Washington sends Michael Soroka to the hill on Friday morning, and he's been a pleasant surprise for them this season. Not much was expected out of the 27-year-old after he went 0-10 last year with a bloated 4.74 ERA.
So far this season, Soroka has one of the best expected ERAs and one of the best expected batting averages allowed in the National League. He doesn't throw overly hard, but his breaking stuff has been first-class all season long. I also like that he can induce ground balls when he needs to.
You've got to love getting some early morning action on our nation's Independence Day! Soroka is finally healthy after an injury-riddled history with the Braves a few years back.
The journeyman righty has a filthy slurve and an above-average sinker, so he should be able to rack up plenty of Ks against Boston. The Red Sox have the 3rd-highest K-rate in MLB against righties, and 6 players in their lineup fan at least 23% of the time.
Soroka has hit this line in 3 of his 4 home starts this season. Happy 4th of July, baseball bettors! Take care!