The Boston Red Sox head to Seattle riding a nice 5-game win streak, which also happens to be their best run of the season. But things just got a little more complicated. Mere hours after completing a sweep of the Yankees, the front office stunned fans by trading Rafael Devers to the Giants.
This is a huge blow to a team that had finally found some rhythm, and the timing couldn’t be worse. What was the front office thinking? We don’t know, but now they face the Seattle Mariners, who just swept the Guardians and are 2-1 against Boston this season.
This 3-game series continues a crucial stretch for both teams. Boston (37-36) sits 4th in the AL East but is back in the Wild Card race as they’re just 0.5 games out. Seattle, sitting at 36-34 and 2nd in the AL West, is fighting to stay in that same hunt. We expect intensity and urgency from both clubs as they try to build separation in the standings and stay relevant in their races.
Tonight’s game takes place at T-Mobile Park, a venue that's been producing around 8.5 runs per game this season. It’s the perfect setting for another tight matchup in what’s already been a close season series.
Lucas Giolito got the ball for Boston, and it’s been a rocky road for him in 2025. The right-hander holds a 2-1 record, but his 5.45 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over 39.2 innings looks like he’s in trouble. He’s allowed 6 HRs and dished 14 walks, with just 31 Ks to show for it. His command has been somewhat shaky, and against a lineup like Seattle’s that knows how to punish mistakes, that’s not a good sign heading into tonight.
The Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert, who has been almost elite. He’s just 1-1 but has a decent 2.37 ERA and an insane 0.79 WHIP in 30.1 innings of work. Gilbert has struck out 44 while walking only 6. His control, paired with a 37.6% strikeout rate and a strong ground-ball profile, makes him a tough matchup for a Red Sox team suddenly lacking power after last night’s trade.
Seattle enters as the heavy favorite at -176 on the moneyline, while Boston sits at +144. The run line has Seattle -1.5 at +128, while Boston gets +1.5 at -156. The total is set at 7 runs, with the over at -120 and the under at -101.
These numbers just go to show the edge that Gilbert brings to the mound and the uncertainty now surrounding Boston’s offense. The total sitting so low is a nod to the strength of both starters, but there’s still potential for fireworks if Giolito implodes and the Mariners pounce.
Here’s how the teams stack up—
Batting Average: Boston .253 (8th), Seattle .243 (19th)
Runs Per Game: Boston 4.8 (6th), Seattle 4.4 (12th)
Home Runs: Boston 89 (9th), Seattle 90 (6th)
ERA: Both teams at 3.96 (tied for 18th/17th)
Opponent Batting Average: Boston .250 (19th), Seattle .254 (23rd)
Strikeouts: Boston 614 (13th), Seattle 567 (17th)
Walks Drawn: Boston 241, Seattle 216
Night Game Records: Boston 21-23, Seattle 19-25
These 2 teams are close in just about everything. It’s no wonder they’re both in the hunt for an AL wild card even though it’s still very early in the season.
This game comes down to pitching and adjustments.
Gilbert has been nothing shy of dominant this season, with a pinpoint WHIP under 0.80. That puts him among the best in the league when healthy. He doesn’t walk guys, rarely gives up hard contact, and strikes out over 11 batters per 9 innings. That’s great against any team, but against a Boston lineup that just lost its cleanup hitter and primary run producer, he has the tools to cruise through the middle innings and go deep into the game.
Boston’s offense will rely heavily on Jarren Duran who has a .264 AVG with 38 RBIs and Wilyer Abreu and his 13 HR and 32 RBIs, but this isn’t the same team without Devers. His 14 home runs and 57 RBIs were team highs, and his absence changed how pitchers can attack the heart of the order. Without that threat lurking in the middle, Gilbert can work around guys like Story and Abreu without worrying too much.
On the other hand, Giolito just hasn’t been able to find his form. His 1.36 HR/9 rate and bloated WHIP make him a liability against a team like Seattle, who’s top 10 in homers and walks. We’re expecting guys like Cal Raleigh who has 26 HR and 54 RBIs and J.P. Crawford and his .296 AVG and .413 SLG to put pressure on Giolito early and often.
And while Boston’s bullpen has held it together lately, they’re going to be stretched thin if Giolito can’t get through at least 5 decent innings. On the other side, the Mariners are deeper and more stable, and playing at home in front of a crowd hungry for playoff baseball.
Seattle already took 2 out of 3 from Boston earlier this season and with a better starter on the mound, a more stable roster, and power up and down the lineup, they’re in a strong position to take this series opener.
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction: Mariners 4, Red Sox 2
Best Bet: Take the Seattle Mariners moneyline at -176
The odds aren’t the best for a good payout, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty in tonight’s matchup so we’re laying off on the run line for this one. -176 won’t pay the bills, but a win is a win and we like what the Mariners look like going against this now-broken Red Sox. Their 5 game-winning streak ends tonight.