The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants meet for the 6th time this regular season in what’s shaping up to be a crucial early June showdown as these teams fight for the NL West.
San Diego leads the season series 4-1 and sits just one game ahead of San Francisco in the NL West standings, but they both have the Dodgers to figure out. Either way, these games are all big games no matter how early in the season it is.
The pitching matchup brings 2 high-profile arms to the mound which makes this game one of the most intense of the day.
Dylan Cease will start for the Padres and he’s carrying a 1-4 record with a 4.66 ERA across 63.2 innings. While his WHIP is decent at 1.29, he’s been prone to giving up the long ball — 8 homers already this year. Despite having better seasons than this, Cease’s last outing came against the Pirates, and it didn’t go well. He allowed 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work which pushed his ERA to 5.79 over the past week.
Opposite to him is Robbie Ray, who’s been everything the Giants hoped for — and more. The lefty is dominant with a 7-1 record and a 2.43 ERA and has struck out 78 batters while walking just 30 in 70.1 innings. In his last start against the Marlins, he went 7 innings, gave up just one run, and fanned nine. His home ERA sits below 2.50, and he's especially good at limiting damage the 2nd and 3rd times through a lineup which means he can go deep into games and sometimes even clear 100 pitches.
Ray’s consistency has anchored a Giants rotation that otherwise leans on youth and bullpen games. He’s been dominant in Oracle Park as well, and with a strong defensive team behind him, he gives San Francisco their best chance to pull even in the season series.
The Giants are slight home favorites, sitting at –115 on the moneyline. The Padres, on the other hand, are close behind at even odds. The total is listed at 7.5 runs, with the underpriced as the favorite at -120. That reflects not only the quality of the starting pitchers but also the ballpark as Oracle Park has kept scoring low this season, with an average of just 7.6 total runs per game and a 12-17 over/under record. This could really play into Cease’s favor and help him get back on track.
San Diego backers might find value on the +1.5 run line, which comes with heavy juice which means the bookmakers expect a tight game. On the flip side, Padres -1.5 offers a tempting payout at +170, but it’s a risky proposition given the pitching matchup and the field they’re playing at, we’ll get more into that in a minute.
The Padres bring more to the plate offensively even if it’s not by much. They're batting .249 AVG as a team, compared to .231 AVG for the Giants. San Diego has also scored more runs with 498 compared to 473 and has shown more pop overall, with a better OBP and SLG.
To no surprise, Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 13 home runs and a .273 average, while Manny Machado continues to rake with a solid .314 average and .484 SLG. Gavin Sheets is also getting in on the action as he has driven in 38 runs, giving the Padres some balance in the lineup.
San Francisco has a bit of a lineup as well. Their offensive leaders — Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, and Wilmer Flores — have kept them afloat, but the lineup struggles to string together hits on a consistent basis. Chapman has 11 dingers, but is batting just .236, while Ramos and Flores are solid but not what we’d consider game-changing threats as they have a .494 and .406 SLG respectively. The Giants average just 4.1 runs per game and rank 25th in team batting average which doesn’t excite us too much.
Defensively, both clubs are pretty solid. San Diego ranks 5th in OBA and 9th in Ks per game. Their team ERA of 3.56 is in the top 10 in the league. But the Giants have the edge here — they own the second-best ERA in baseball at 3.06 and are 8th in OBA. That’s where Robbie Ray becomes a major factor for this club. He limits contact, works efficiently, and can neutralize power hitters from both sides of the plate which will go far in keeping Tatis, Machado, and Sheets off of the bags.
That said, Ray has not pitched deep into games consistently until recently, and the Giants’ bullpen, while it’s relatively decent, has been shaky in extra innings. 2 of the 5 games between these clubs have gone into extras, with the Padres winning both of them. That matters late in a close one and even last night’s game pushed it to the brink.
Cease, while inconsistent, has electric stuff and can miss bats when he’s on. Again, he has to be locked in, but has the potential. He’s already struck out 78 hitters this year and could hold the Giants in check long enough for San Diego’s bats to do just enough. So, we wouldn’t count him out so quickly.
This is a tight game on paper but one side has a slight edge here. San Francisco has the better starter and home-field edge, but San Diego has won 4 of 5 in the season series and boasts the deeper lineup. Robbie Ray may be the ace for the Giants, but the Padres have shown they can grind out wins, even in low-scoring extra-inning battles. Ray could take them far, but the Padres are absolutely resilient. They’ve been slightly better on the road than the Giants have been at home and are 13-9 in day games, which also works in their favor.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Padres 3, Giants 2
Best Bet: San Diego Padres moneyline at -115
If this game comes down to late offense or clutch hitting, which it very well could, you want Tatis, Machado, and Sheets at the plate. San Diego's lineup gives them a better shot to scratch across the go-ahead run in what we expect will be another tight, low-scoring game.