Game 1 of a star-studded 3-game series gets going tonight from Dodger Stadium, where the New York Yankees, who are 35-20 take on the Los Angeles Dodgers who are 34-22.
It’s a battle between two first-place clubs, both loaded with tons of talent, and both with championship expectations. The Yankees are coming in smoking hot, winners of 5 straight, while the Dodgers have hit a rough patch, losing 7 of their last 15.
This one features elite bats, postseason vibes, and a top-tier pitching duel to start things off. Will the Dodgers be able to get back on their feet against the Bronx Bombers?
Tonight’s showdown has the feel of October. A big thanks in large part to the arms on the mound. Max Fried, who’s been everything the Yankees could’ve asked for — and more — gets the ball in tonight’s Game 1. He’s been absolutely dominant in 2025 with a perfect 7-0 record, a sparkling 1.29 ERA, and just 3 HRs allowed over 70 innings. Fried isn’t just winning games, instead, he’s locking down lineups and looking every bit of a Cy Young candidate early in the season. His 67 strikeouts and 0.93 WHIP make it clear he’s in control every time out on the bump.
Across from him is Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers. He’s still trying to find his rhythm after a late start to the season. He’s only thrown 25 innings and carries a 4.68 ERA and a pretty bad 1.44 WHIP. The numbers paint a picture of a pitcher still getting up to speed and trying to figure out what works, and that could spell trouble against the most dangerous lineup in the AL.
The Yankees come into this one leading the majors in homers and ranking just 3rd in total runs scored. That offense is led, of course, by none other than Aaron Judge, who’s putting up absurd numbers once again. He’s slashing .391/.488/.739 with 18 homers and 47 RBIs on the season. But that’s the thing. It’s not just the Judge show. Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham, and Cody Bellinger have all been steady contributors to the team, making this one of the deepest lineups in baseball. And if I said it once, I’ll say it again — depth wins games in any sport.
On the flip side, the Dodgers still boast an elite offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, who’s blasted 20 homers of his own. Freddie Freeman with his .359 AVG and Will Smith with a 176 wRC+ round out a top-three that can do serious damage regardless of who’s throwing to them. As a team, LA ranks 2nd in runs scored and is hitting .263. However, they’ve cooled off lately, and Gonsolin doesn’t look like the answer to stop the bleeding. We’re sure they’ll get it together, but against the Yankees, that’s a tall order.
Bookmakers have made the Yankees slight road favorites, and it’s easy to see why. With Fried on the bump and the offense firing on all cylinders, New York has the momentum and matchup edge. The Yankees are listed at just -125 on the moneyline, with the Dodgers at +105 — which is about as even as you can get between these 2 teams. The run line has New York -1.5 at +136 and LA +1.5 at -162. The total is set at 9 runs, with juice shaded to the under at -115. Given that Dodger Stadium sees 10.3 runs a game on average, the over at -105 might be the better buy.
New York is 20-11 in night games and comes in as one of baseball’s most complete teams. They’ve been especially tough during this 5-game win streak, taking care of the Angels and Rockies with strong pitching and phenomenal hitting. Their team ERA is 3.25, good for 6th in the league, and they own the lowest OBA in baseball at .207.
The Dodgers, while still dangerous, are just 7-8 over their last 15 and haven’t been able to string wins together against good teams and bad teams. Their bullpen has faltered a bit, and key injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki have left their pitching staff undoubtedly exposed. Gonsolin has given up 8 earned runs in his last 9 innings and has walked 12 batters in just 25 frames. That’s not ideal against a Yankees squad that leads MLB with 4.09 walks per game.
This series is packed with star power, but Game 1 is where the Yankees will without a doubt strike first. Max Fried gives them a clear edge on the mound, especially against a lineup that’s been good but hasn’t faced many pitchers of his elite caliber recently. Los Angeles can hit with anyone, but the cracks in their rotation and bullpen make them somewhat vulnerable against elite clubs like New York.
Offensively, the Yankees don’t really let you breathe. Judge is playing like an MVP, as always, and the depth behind him keeps pitchers under pressure bat after bat. Gonsolin has struggled with control and hasn’t looked sharp enough to keep this dominant lineup in check. The Yankees’ bullpen has also been rock-solid, with a 3.25 ERA that ranks among the best in baseball.
We expect Fried to handle business and give New York 6-7 strong innings, while the bats do enough to build a lead. Los Angeles will likely need to lean heavily on its bullpen by the 5 or maybe 6th inning, and that’s when the Yankees can extend their lead.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Yankees 6, Dodgers 3
Best Bet: New York Yankees moneyline at -125
The pitching mismatch, the Yankees' plate discipline, and the Dodgers' current form all point to New York in Game 1. We’ll look for the Bombers to set the tone early in this heavyweight series. If you want a bold bet, you might even take the Yankees on the run line at +136. The big key with that is to get the jump on Gonsolin and rack up the runs to pad their way to a multi-run win. But then again, it’s still the Dodgers so you have to be careful with that.