Happy Wednesday, sports betting family! Hope you found some winners on the Tuesday card. Welcome to our daily column of MLB betting picks, where we try our darndest to capture some closing line value by betting early. Getting the best number is the name of the game in sports betting!
Tuesday's plays went 3-0, so hopefully we can string together a few positive days in a row this week to close out May on a high note. Both strikeout props parlays got home, and Tomoyuki Sugano stayed under by the hook to complete the sweep.
Check out our best bet and top player props parlay for Wednesday, May 28th, below. Let's cash these, baseball bettors. Best of luck, my friends.
TOR at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
I'm a pretty big fan of Tyler Mahle, but he's never been a prolific strikeout artist. The 30-year-old righty relies more on ground balls and missing barrels than racking up Ks. He has a nice K-rate against Toronto in his career, but it's an extremely small sample size of just 20 plate appearances.
Not only is Mahle's stuff not overpowering, he draws a really tough matchup against the Blue Jays this evening at home. Toronto has the 2nd-lowest K-rate in baseball this season against righties. Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, Vladdy Jr, and Bo Bichette all have strikeout rates of 16.5% or less.
Laying -140 in juice isn't ideal, but let's math this thing up to explain why I'm doing it. At -140 odds, you have to win 58.3% of the time to break even.
However, Mahle has stayed under this line in 7 of his 11 starts this season. That equates to a winning rate of 63.6%. That implies that this juice should be -175 instead of -140, and that we have an implied edge of 5.3%. Give me the Under!
SF at DET: 1:10 PM EDT and MIN at TB: 1:10 PM EDT
Landen Roupp doesn't have dynamic stuff, but his K-rate isn't all that terrible (47th percentile). The young righty also has a slightly above-average whiff rate that ranks in the 58th percentile of MLB.
Detroit may have gotten the win last night, but they looked lost at times against Logan Webb's sinker. That just happens to be Landen Roupp's best pitch, so you can see why I like him to rack up at least 4 punchouts this afternoon against the Tigers. I also like that most of Detroit's lineup has never faced Roupp before, which should work out in our favor.
There's not too much to say about Pablo Lopez. The Twins veteran righty has been the model of consistency for some time now when it comes to generating strikeouts. His K-rate ranks in the 77th percentile, and his chase rate clocks in at the 84th percentile.
Lopez has 5 above-average pitches that he uses to keep hitters on their toes. Tampa Bay hasn't been fanning a lot lately, but they still have the 8th-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers. Let's cash another strikeout props parlay for some early Hump Day action.