The Toronto Blue Jays struck first in this series when they edged out the Texas Rangers 2-1 last night thanks to Kevin Gausman’s gem on the mound and a solo homer from Daulton Varsho.
Toronto has now won 2 of its last 5, while Texas continues to stumble even harder, dropping 4 of its last 5 which includes 2 losses to the White Sox. For game 2, Bowden Francis takes the mound for the Jays against Texas ace Nathan Eovaldi, who’s been dominant in 2025 and is not looking to slow down any time soon.
This AL matchup is set for tonight at 7:05 PM ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, where scoring has seemingly been hard to come by all year. Games at this park average just 6.3 total runs, and the under is 22-6 in games played there, given these 2 teams and the SPs on the bump, that might be a solid bet.
Texas comes in as the betting favorite, listed around -148 on the moneyline, while Toronto is at just +124. The total is set at 8, with the under-favored at -115. If you like the Rangers on the run line at -1.5, it’s available at +140, while the Jays at +1.5 run line is -166.
There’s no secret why Texas is favored here. Nathan Eovaldi has been nothing shy of incredible, and Globe Life is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league, hence the low run counts. With the way these teams are hitting — or not hitting — there’s a strong play for another low-scoring game.
On paper, there’s a wide gap in starting pitching for this one.
Nathan Eovaldi has a case as one of the top right-handers in the AL this season. Through his 11 starts, he’s 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts to just 9 walks. On top of that, he has a complete game and a shutout. At home, he’s been just as sharp with a 1.90 ERA, 29 Ks in 23.2 innings, and opponents hitting under .200 against him. So, he’s not just a hot bet coming into tonight’s matchup but has the rest of the AL on notice as well.
Eovaldi doesn’t give away free passes and limits home run damage as he has just 4 HRs allowed all season. His pitch mix keeps hitters guessing, and he’s holding both lefties and righties in check. Against a Blue Jays offense that ranks bottom 5 in runs and homers, this is a prime spot for Eovaldi to dominate yet again.
Toronto counters with Bowden Francis, who’s had a rough start to 2025. He’s 2-6 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, and things haven’t been much better on the road where he’s 0-3, 4.43 ERA in 22.1 IP. The long ball has undoubtedly plagued him as he has 15 home runs allowed and facing even a slumping Rangers lineup could spell trouble.
The thing here is that Texas doesn’t need to be red-hot offensively to capitalize. Their lineup still features power with Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung in the mix. Sure, none of these batters are elite, but they’re good enough to get the job done against the right pitching staff. The team ranks 14th in home runs, and even though they sit T-27th in runs per game, this is a matchup they can take advantage of and maybe move up a few spots.
Daulton Varsho of the Blue Jays is flying under the radar, but his bat has been loud in this matchup. He’s now homered in 3 straight games against the Rangers, including Monday night’s clutch blast. He’s got 8 dingers on the year and an OPS of .841, despite a modest .218 AVG.
Varsho’s had success in this ballpark and has already looked extremely comfortable at the plate against Texas pitching despite not ever facing Eovaldi. He’s batting just .200 on the road overall but has produced 5 RBIs in those 30 ABs away from home. His track record and confidence at Globe Life give this prop some seriously sneaky value.
Getting +370 on a player with 3 straight home runs in this exact matchup is a strong number, especially for bettors chasing a bit more upside. Even with Eovaldi on the mound, Varsho’s track record is tough to ignore as he also leads the Jays in HRs.
Monday’s loss was more about Kevin Gausman than anything the Rangers necessarily did wrong. Toronto got elite pitching and just enough offense to scrape by and get the win. But game 2 is a different story altogether. With Nathan Eovaldi dealing, Texas owns the edge in pitching, and their offense is more than capable of producing against a struggling starter like Francis.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Rangers 4, Blue Jays 1
Best Bet: Texas Rangers moneyline at -148
Toronto’s been wildly inconsistent at the plate, and their poor numbers against right-handed pitching don’t inspire confidence. We think Eovaldi should control the game from the start and keep Toronto's bats quiet. If anyone on the Blue Jays goes yard, we’re pretty sure it’ll be Varsho, though, it might be against the Ranger’s bullpen.