Two of the NL's best teams are all set to clash tonight as the Los Angeles Dodgers sitting at 31-19 open a high-stakes 3-game series on the road against the New York Mets who are 30-20.
It’s a battle of division leaders with potential October implications, and it all goes down at Citi Field under the lights. It’s going to be a great game, but with great games comes great bets. Fortunately, once we’ve looked at the stats and trends, we’ve got a solid prediction for this NL showdown.
Both teams are coming in smoking hot.
The Dodgers just won back-to-back games over the Diamondbacks and continue to ride their elite offense. The Mets on the other hand just rebounded from a series loss to Boston with a win, and have gone 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Veteran Clayton Kershaw makes just his 2nd start of the season for Los Angeles. In his return from being on the 60-day DL for a torn meniscus, he lasted just 4 innings, and they weren’t great. He allowed 5 earned runs and posted an 11.25 ERA. It’s a small sample, but the early signs were very shaky. At 37 years old, Kershaw might need a few more starts before rounding into the form we’re all familiar with.
On the other side of the bump, Griffin Canning is rolling for New York. He brings a 5-1 record, a solid 2.47 ERA, and has been especially dominant at home. So far, he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 4 starts at Citi Field. That’s pretty solid but his WHIP of 1.29 means he's not spotless, but he’s been reliable and effective.
The Dodgers are slight road favorites, with their moneyline at -112, while the Mets sit at -108. That’s about as even as it gets when it comes to the moneyline.
On the run line, Los Angeles is -1.5 at +145, which offers nice value if you think the bats show up in a big way, but let's keep in mind that they're up against Canning who could go 7 innings without a problem. The Mets +1.5 is priced at -175, offering insurance for a tight contest.
The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the over at -120 and the under at +100, which doesn’t have much confidence in runners staying off of the bags. With both lineups capable of slugging, this number feels sharp to us.
The Dodgers continue to lead the league in most offensive categories. Of course, Shohei Ohtani has been a beast as he’s slugging .655 with 17 dingers and a .304 AVG. Freddie Freeman is having another MVP-caliber year, batting .368 with a staggering .660 SLG. Add Teoscar Hernandez’s 38 RBIs and Will Smith’s .455 OBP, and you’ve got one of the deepest lineups in baseball so it’s easy to see why they’re at the top.
The Mets don’t quite match that firepower, but they’re no slouch, either. Pete Alonso leads the team with a .292 average, .395 OBP, and 37 RBIs, while Francisco Lindor has chipped in 10 dingers. We’re all waiting for Juan Soto to start ratcheting it up as well. New York has racked up 56 hits from Lindor and 9 stolen bases from Alonso, so they can beat you with power and situational hitting even if they don’t have the depth of the Dodgers.
The concern for LA is pitching. Their team ERA is 4.16, and Kershaw didn’t look sharp in his lone outing this year. We’re not sure if his second outing against the Mets is the best spot for him to find his groove. If the Mets get to him early, it’ll stress a bullpen that has already carried a heavy load.
Canning, on the other hand, has held up well, especially at home. He’s given up just 16 hits and 4 earned runs over his last 21 home innings. That kind of consistency will be a major factor if he wants to slow down the Dodgers’ elite top-of-the-order.
This is one of those matchups where numbers and momentum point to one team — and we feel that team is the Mets. Canning has the hot hand, the home field, and the support of a Mets squad that plays well in close games. Kershaw, while undoubtedly a legend, is still finding his rhythm and may not be the stopper LA needs right now.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 3
Best Bet: Mets moneyline at -108
We expect this one to be close, but the Mets should take advantage of a still-rusty Kershaw and hold off the Dodgers late. With the Mets’ pitching edge and the Dodgers throwing a rusty Kershaw, the slight underdog value is too good to pass up.