Happy Wednesday, sports betting family! Hope you found some winners on the Tuesday card. Welcome to our daily column of MLB betting picks, where we try our darndest to capture some closing line value by betting early.
Tuesday's plays went 2-2, so hopefully we can string together a few positive days in a row this week after a so-so showing last week. There hasn't been much meat on the bone in the strikeout props market, so I've moved to a one-parlay-a-day approach for a while.
Check out our 3 MLB best bets and top player props parlay for Wednesday, May 21st, below. Let's cash these, baseball bettors. As always, make sure to select listed pitchers at whichever sportsbook you're playing these at. Good luck!
BAL at MIL - 1:10 PM EDT (Sugano vs. Patrick)
I'm not quite ready to write this Orioles team off for dead just yet. Yes, I know they've had a horrific start and that they just fired their manager. That being said, there's just too much talent in this lineup for them to continue to play this poorly.
Surely Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holiday can get things rolling against Brewers starter Chad Patrick this afternoon. The young righty has allowed an expected batting average of .270 this season, and I think he's due for some negative regression. Even with as bad as the O's have played, they still rank a very solid 7th in WRC+ against righties.
I'm not too crazy about Sugano, but I think he's worth a look at a nice dog price today on the road. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he has one of the best walk rates in the league and the ability to induce ground balls when he needs them.
HOU at TB- 1:10 PM EDT (Brown vs. Bradley)
I was short on time yesterday afternoon, so this was one of the MLB openers that I posted on my X page. This price was way too cheap on Hunter Brown, and I'd still play on him and the Astros at the current price of -139 over at BetMGM.
Brown took a tough luck loss against the Rangers last Thursday, but he's been fantastic all year long. His K-rate ranks in the 92nd percentile and his chase rate is in the 82nd percentile thanks to some nasty breaking pitches.
I also think Houston has a sizable edge over Tampa Bay with their bullpen. The Astros rank 4th in reliever K minus BB rate, while the Rays rank just 14th. Look for Brown to pitch his usual 6 innings of dominance, and for the Houston bullpen to slam the door shut in the later innings.
SD at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT (Vasquez vs. Gausman)
The Padres are a good ballclub, but they've been ice-cold at the plate lately. Even their superstar players look a little bit confused, which is shocking to see. San Diego will turn it around soon, but it won't be tonight against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman.
The veteran righty's numbers aren't all that wonderful, but his splitter is still generating a ton of swings and misses. Gausman has also done a good job of limiting his walks so far this season. I think he'll hold this slumping Pads lineup at bay for 5 or 6 innings this evening.
On the flip side, I've never been a big believer in Padres starter Randy Vasquez. He's a huge candidate for negative regression, especially since his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. Look for Toronto to jump on Vasquez early and often in this one.
Our props parlay went up in smoke like Cheech and Chong last night because of Jameson Taillon. That was a terrible call by me because he'd just pitched against the Marlins six days prior. Let's right the ship with today's fun K prop parlay.
I already raved about how well Hunter Brown has pitched, and he gets a fabulous matchup against Tampa Bay this afternoon. Yes, I know the ball tends to fly out of the Rays' substitute home stadium, but Brown has the stuff to work deep and generate 7 or 8 punchouts. Tampa Bay has the 5th-highest K-rate in baseball against righties.
Tylor Megill has been a pleasant surprise for the Metamucils this season. The big righty's K-rate is currently in the 85th percentile, and his whiff rate has also been pretty impressive. He should be able to rack up at least 5 Ks against a Boston lineup that has struggled to make contact for much of the 2025 campaign.