Happy Tuesday, sports betting amigos! I hope your week has gotten off to a fantastic start. Welcome to our daily column of MLB openers, where we try our best to get ahead of some line moves and gain that coveted closing line value.
We went 13-10 with these plays over the last couple of weeks, so hopefully we can keep things rolling. Always remember to practice sound money management at all times. Baseball is a long grind, and we must bet conservatively to stay in the game over a full season.
Check out our 2 MLB openers for Tuesday, May 20th, below. Let's cash these, baseball fans. As always, make sure to select listed pitchers at whichever sportsbook you're playing these at. Best of luck!
CIN at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT (Martinez vs. Falter)
I'm going to keep fading this pitiful Pirates squad, at least in games where Paul Skenes isn't on the hill. Pittsburgh has no offense to speak of, especially over the last two weeks, where they rank dead last in WRC+ as a team. Nick Martinez isn't that dominant of a starter for Cincy, but I don't foresee him having much trouble against the P-Rats.
Martinez has done a decent job of limiting hard contact this season, as he ranks in the 80th percentile in that all-too-important category. The veteran righty also doesn't issue many free passes, and he sports an above-average changeup.
Pittsburgh starter Bailey Falter is one of the worst lefties in the Majors, according to the metrics I look at. The wiry southpaw spots his fastball well, but his other four pitches are usually a complete disaster.
Falter has allowed an expected batting average of .338 to this Cincy roster, so I'm all about the Reds in this one. Tyler Stephenson is hitting .533 with a couple of dingers against Falter in his career. Cincinnati also has a slightly better bullpen, so we'll roll with the better team once again at a very cheap price.
DET at STL - 7:45 PM EDT (Skubal vs. Fedde)
Laying this high of juice isn't usually a good idea, but Tarik Skubal has been almost unhittable for going on two years now. I made this line Detroit -218 even though they're playing on the road in St. Louis. My current metrics make Skubal the favorite to win his 2nd straight American League Cy Young Award if he keeps up his current pace.
On the flip side, I don't think very highly of Erick Fedde. The veteran righty could be a candidate for some serious regression here pretty soon. His ERA is just 3.44, but his expected ERA is a whopping 4.92.
Those kinds of numbers tell me that Fedde is ripe for the proverbial picking, and the Tigers could light him up like a Christmas tree in this one. Detroit ranks 5th in WRC+ against righties this season, and Javy Baez and Kerry Carpenter are having fantastic seasons. The Tigers also have a much better bullpen than the Cards, but I doubt they'll need to do very much with Skooby on the bump.