Happy Monday, sports betting family! I hope all of you had a remarkable weekend. We had a profitable 5-3 showing if you combine Friday's 4-1 and Saturday's 1-2 performances, respectively. That brings us to 76-72 on the season for a deficit of 9.06 units.
Overall, though, last week was kind of ho-hum, as we posted an 11-11 mark. Let's keep firing with 3 best bets and a player prop for Monday, May 19th. Good luck, folks!
CIN at PIT- 6:40 PM EDT (Lodolo vs. Keller)
Two of the worst offenses in the Majors will do battle in Pittsburgh to start this week off on a somewhat boring note. Even though both lineups have performed badly, the Pirates have been on another level as far as bad is concerned. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in WRC+ over the last 2 weeks.
Because of the Pirates' lack of offensive prowess, I think Nick Lodolo can handle them quite easily tonight on the road. The young lefty isn't striking out as many hitters as he did last season, but he's been masterful at generating weak contact.
Mitch Keller has good career numbers against Cincy, but he's had a rough start to 2025. The veteran righty is giving up an expected batting average of .292 so far this season. That could be a problem against guys like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain.
BAL at MIL - 7:40 PM EDT (Kremer vs. Priester)
Here's a battle of two teams that have been highly disappointing to start this season. Baltimore has been a major player in the AL East over the last couple of years, but they recently fired their manager because of their horrific start. Will that Brandon Hyde's firing light a fire under this Orioles squad?
I don't like O's starter Dean Kremer, but I trust him a whole lot more than I do Quinn Priester. Kremer has been nothing special so far this season, but I still have him ranked about 40 slots higher than Priester in my starting pitcher power ratings. Priester's walk rate of over 14% usually comes back to bite him, and that's what I'm banking on tonight in Milwaukee.
Baltimore's pitching has been atrocious, but their lineup has still hit righties pretty well. The O's rank 7th in WRC+ this year against right-handers, so I think they'll do enough damage against Priester to get us to the window at this even money price.
CLE at MIN - 7:40 PM EDT (Allen vs. Ober)
The Twins' big winning streak finally came to an end on Sunday, but that's not going to stop me from backing them on Monday night at home. Minnesota should have a huge edge in the pitching department in this one, as both their starter and their bullpen rank higher than Cleveland's.
Bailey Ober can be frustrating to watch at times, but he's done a really good job of limiting this Guardians lineup. Ober has only allowed an expected batting average of .201 against this Cleveland team.
Logan Allen is one of the worst lefty starters in baseball, at least according to my numbers. He has a bad habit of leaving his breaking pitches out over the middle of the plate, and that's a serious no-no when facing any big league team. Look for Minny to start a new winning streak tonight at home.
KC at SF - 9:45 PM EDT
Plus money Overs have burned me quite a bit in the player props market this season, but I'm signing up for more abuse for some late-night action. Bubic has been a pleasant surprise for this Royals team so far this season, and I think he can have lots of success against a Giants lineup that's very average-looking.
San Fran has the 9th-highest K-rate in baseball against lefties, so Bubic should have plenty of opportunities to rack up some Ks. Four Giants hitters strike out more than 23.4% of the time. Patrick Bailey fans almost 32% of the time, so Bubic could get two or even three strikeouts against him this evening.
Bubic ranks in the 73rd percentile in strikeout rate this season. Even better than that, he ranks in the 85th percentile in chase rate. Give me an Over to close out our Monday card. Thanks for reading, my friends!