Welcome to the Thursday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are only a few matchups on today's light board, but lots of folks are pumped up for the Astros vs. the Rangers and the A's vs. the Dodgers.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Twins vs. Orioles tilt at 12:35 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for May 15th. Best of luck, my friends.
Oddsmakers are favoring the O's by a moderate amount in this matchup, as the opening line priced Baltimore as a -130 favorite at home on Thursday afternoon. A little bit of money has shown up for the Orioles, so the price now sits in the -132 to -135 range in favor of the Birds.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a normal amount of scoring in this game. The number opened at 9 runs, and some early money on the Over has pushed the juice up to the -120 range at some online sportsbooks. I agree with the move toward the Over, as I'm not all that crazy about either starting pitcher.
The Twins have overcome some tough-luck injuries to Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis to win 9 games in a row. Even with their recent hot streak, Minnesota is still 5.5 games out of first place behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.
Minny's run differential has improved to +22 on the season, which is actually higher than both Kansas City and Cleveland, even though they trail those two teams in the standings. The Twins will send Chris Paddack to the hill on Thursday, and he's had just a so-so start to his 2025 campaign.
Even though I'm not a fan of Paddack, I have a lot of respect for the Minnesota bullpen. The Twins relivers have the 2nd-best K minus BB rate in MLB, so that could be an edge for them in the latter innings.
Baltimore's offense has been scuffling a bit lately, so they'll need to pick things up if they want to get a crucial win on getaway day. The Orioles rank just 13th in WRC+ over the last couple of weeks, so guys like Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins better step it up soon.
The O's have gotten off to a dreadful start to 2025, as they're just 15-25 so far this season. The front office's decision not to sign some talented starting pitchers could come back to bite this team later in the year.
Tomoyuki Sugano will get the ball on Thursday for Balty, and he's been a pleasant surprise for their rotation. Sugano has one of the best BB rates in baseball at only 4.4% (92nd percentile). He gets a lot of movement with his splitter and his cutter.
MIN at BAL - 12:35 PM EDT
Baltimore definitely isn't in great current form, but I think their offense will do plenty of damage at home against Chris Paddack. The veteran righty has allowed a .281 expected batting average against this Orioles roster in his career.
Even with their poor overall start, the O's still rank 7th in WRC+ against righties this season. Minnesota ranks just 21st in that category. The Twins also have just the 19th most productive offense in MLB over the last 14 days.
Don't be surprised if Gunnar Henderson has a big day at the plate for Baltimore in this one. The young phenom is 3 for 4 with a homer against Paddack in his career. Let's lay the moderate price with the O's, especially since I think this line should be closer to -145 or so.
HOU at TEX- 8:05 PM EDT
This is only available at FanDuel because starting pitchers haven't officially been announced by either squad. I'm going with the assumption that it's going to be Hunter Brown against Jacob deGrom, which would be a phenomenal matchup. I like deGrom quite a bit, but I have Brown rated about 8 slots higher than him.
Houston also has the much better bullpen and better overall offense in this battle for the great state of Texas. Give me the 'Stros as a short dog in this one. Best of luck!