Happy Hump Day, fellow sports bettors! Tuesday was a so-so day for us on the MLB side of things. We went 1-1, running our record to 68-63 on the young season for a deficit of 6.33 units. Even though the record isn't where it needs to be, we've done pretty well over the last 10 days or so.
The Cleveland Guardians got the job done for us over the Milwaukee Brewers last night with a 2-0 win. What in the world is going on with this Brew Crew offense? They just can't hit a lick here lately.
Our one loss was on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who blew an early 3-0 lead to lose 10-6 to the San Francisco Giants. Regression finally bit our buddy Brandon Pfaadt in a big way, but hopefully he'll bounce back soon.
The K props have done well this season at 42-32 (+4.08), but everything else has brought down our record. Let's keep the positive mojo going with 3 more strikeout props for Wednesday, May 14. Best of luck, my friends!
AZ at SF - 3:45 PM EDT
I almost laid the big -160 juice for Over 4.5, so I wouldn't blame you if you wanted to play it safe and go that route. However, I think E-Rod bounces back quite nicely after a rough outing against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers last week. He's been a little bit unlucky this season and has pitched much better than his bloated 6.86 ERA suggests.
Rodriguez doesn't throw that hard, but he has good command of all five of his pitches. I think he can carve up this Giants lineup that has the 6th-highest K-rate this season against lefties. E-Rod's strikeout rate of 25.1% currently ranks him in the 68th percentile in MLB.
This Giants roster only has 31 plate appearances against Rodriguez, but they've struggled to put the ball in play. The veteran southpaw has registered a hefty 32.3% K-rate against the G-Men, and I see no reason why he can't find 6 Ks in this afternoon tilt. Let's get this Over to start our day off right.
TB at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT
I don't know what the heck is going on with Pepiot here lately. I watched him pitch against the Phillies last week, and he looked uncomfortable throwing anything but his changeup. The big righty's strikeout rate is down 6% from what it was in 2024 (26.3% to 20.3%).
Pepiot draws a tough matchup tonight on the road against a Jays team that just doesn't strike out very often. Toronto has the 5th-lowest K-rate in baseball against righties, so Pepiot could struggle to find 5 Ks against them. Four Jays hitters fan less than 19% of the time.
I also like that Toronto's bats have finally come to life a bit lately. The Jays rank 7th in WRC+ over the last 14 days, so Pepiot may not last as many innings as the books think. Give me this sweaty Under!
PIT at NYM- 7:10 PM EDT
Speaking of sweaty Unders, we're going to wrap up our props card with yet another one. I usually like to stay away from all 3.5 numbers when betting K props, but I made this line 2.5 instead of the 3.5 that the sportsbooks are offering us.
Falter has never been a strikeout guy, and he faces a tough Mets lineup with a very high contact rate. New York has the 4th-lowest K-rate against lefties this season, so Falter should end up with only 2 or 3 punchouts in this one. Four Mets hitters fan less than 19.4% of the time.
Falter ranks in just the 25th percentile in K-rate and just the 28th percentile in chase rate. Look for him to focus on getting ground ball outs in this one, especially since this Mets lineup has 6 guys with very low whiff rates.