Happy Monday, sports betting family! I hope all of you had a remarkable Mother's Day Weekend. It's always cool to see the MLB players paying homage to their moms with the pink bats on that special day.
In our last performance, Saturday's plays were not kind to us. We went 1-2, running our record to 65-61 on the young season for a deficit of 7.13 units. We also endured some painful losses with our player props on Friday night.
Overall, though, last week was very successful, as we posted a 14-10 mark for a profit of 1.1 units. Let's keep firing with 2 best bets and a player prop for Monday, May 12th. Good luck, folks!
KC at HOU - 8:10 PM EDT
I'm pretty high on this Ryan Gusto kid for the Astros. I know he's only made 4 big league starts, but his numbers have been solid. The 26-year-old righty has an impressive strikeout rate of 24.8% (66th percentile) and a minuscule walk rate of just 6.8% (73rd percentile).
On the flip side, I've never been a big Michael Wacha fan. He does a good job of getting soft contact at times, but his stuff isn't all that electric. The veteran righty has an expected ERA that's 1.78 higher than his actual ERA. That tells me that regression is coming soon for Mr. Wacha.
Lastly, I trust Houston's offense a whole lot more than Kansas City's. The Astros started off ice cold at the dish, but they've looked a whole lot better lately. Houston ranks 4th in WRC+ over the last 14 days, while Kansas City sits at just 12th. Let's lay the reasonable price with the 'Stros!
AZ at SF - 9:45 PM EDT
Merrill Kelly usually struggles on the road, but I think he's in line for a solid start tonight against San Francisco. He's looked much more comfortable since the calendar turned over to May, as he's got a solid ERA of just 3.18. Kelly should be able to keep this Giants team quiet, especially since they rank just 18th in WRC+ against righties.
Justin Verlander is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, but he's in the final stages of his career, and his stuff isn't as dominant as it once was. His K-rate is under 20%, but he's been good at limiting hard contact.
'Zona has cooled off a bit at the plate lately, but I still prefer them a whole lot more than the G-Men offense. The D'Backs rank 4th in WRC+ against righties this season, and I think Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez could do some mighty damage against Verlander.
LAA at SD - 9:40 PM EDT
The juice almost kept me off this one, but fading the Angels has paid off well for us this season, and I'm going to keep doing it. Though he hasn't been as sharp over the last couple of weeks, King still has really good stuff.
I love that King's strikeout rate ranks in the 77th percentile, and his whiff rate ranks in the 66th percentile. Both of those numbers suggest that he should be able to find 7 or more Ks, especially against this pitiful Angels lineup.
Just how bad have the Halos been this season? They have the highest strikeout rate in MLB against both righties and lefties. They also have 6 hitters with K-rates above 26.3%. Give me a late-night Over to close out the Monday card.