Happy Thursday, sports betting compadres! I hope your Hump Day treated you with lots of winners. Now that we have several weeks' worth of data to digest, I've decided to take a stab at some openers from time to time.
The sides struggled in March and April for us, but it was such a small sample size that I don't feel like shelving them completely. I love attacking the opening odds for the next day's games as soon as they come out, which is at about 2 PM Eastern Time the day before.
Check out our 3 MLB openers for Thursday, May 8th below. Let's put these in the win column, my friends. As always, make sure to select listed pitchers at whichever sportsbook you're playing these at.
BAL at MIN - 1:10 PM EDT
I'm not usually too excited to lay almost a dollar and a half with the Twins, but I love me some Joe Ryan. The crafty righty has feasted on this Orioles lineup to the tune of a 36.4% K-rate and an expected batting average allowed of just .182. I just don't see this scuffling Baltimore lineup being able to do much against Ryan's nasty sweeper.
Minnesota's bullpen is also light years better than Balty's this season. The Twins rank 5th in reliever K minus BB rate, while the O's rank a below-average 19th. I love getting the better starter and the better bullpen arms when playing openers.
I like the Orioles' lineup a little bit more overall than the Twins. That being said, Minnesota has been in much better current form at the plate. The Twins rank 6th in WRC+ over the last 2 weeks, while the Orioles rank an abysmal 23rd. Let's play the Twinkies for some early action!
PHI at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
I've been shocked at how dominant Jesus Luzardo has been for the Phils this season. The veteran lefty currently ranks 79th in strikeout rate and 87th in whiff rate. All three of his breaking pitches (sweeper, slider, sinker) have been almost impossible to hit.
On the flip side, I've been a little disappointed in Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot. The big righty has loads of potential, but he's not hitting his spots with his fastball like he did last season. That could be a problem against a Philly lineup that can rake the ball when they're in a groove.
Speaking of being in a groove, it looks like the Phillies are turning the corner at the plate after a semi-slow start to 2025. They rank 10th against righties and 8th over the last 14 days in WRC+. By contrast, the Rays rank 27th versus lefties and 26th over the last 14. Give me the hotter team in the Fightin' Phils!
TOR at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
The Blue Jays' offense has been a major disappointment to start the year. Vladdy Jr. looks to be pressing a little bit after getting that gigantic contract a few weeks ago. The addition of Anthony Santander, whom I thought was a solid offseason pickup, has not gone according to plan either.
As bad as Toronto's lineup has been, I'd still favor them over the lowly Angels. LAA has come crashing back down to earth after a decent start to 2025. The news just got worse a few days ago when Mike Trout got hurt yet again.
As far as the starters go, I'll ride with Chris Bassitt and his 8 pitches over Jose Soriano any day. The veteran Bassitt is off to a fantastic start this season and showing no signs of slowing down (87th in Chase Rate, 92nd in BB Rate). Give me the Jays at this very reasonable road price.