Welcome to the Monday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are pumped up for Cincinnati vs. Atlanta and San Francisco vs. Chicago.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Padres vs. Yankees tilt at 7:05 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for May 5th. Best of luck, my friends.
Quick Recap: We went 4-1 on Friday to push our MLB prop record to 35-25 on the young season for a profit of 6.1 units. Let's keep that mojo going!
Oddsmakers are favoring the Yanks by a moderate amount in this matchup, as the opening line priced NYY as a -145 favorite at home on Monday evening. A little bit of money has shown up for the Padres, so the price now sits in the -134 to -142 range in favor of the Yanks.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring affair tonight in the city that never sleeps. The number opened at 8 runs, and some early money has pushed it down to 7.5 at most online sportsbooks. The low number makes plenty of sense because Carlos Rodon and Nick Pivetta are both strikeout machines.
The Padres have overcome some tough-luck injuries to Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, and Jackson Merrill. Arraez is finally back in the lineup, and he's a big reason for San Diego's recent hot streak. The Pads have won 5 in a row after sweeping the Pirates over the weekend.
San Diego's recent surge has them only a half-game back of the mighty Dodgers for the NL West division lead. Arraez has done an excellent job of setting the table for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, who both have expected slugging percentages above .572.
The Pads will send Nick Pivetta to the hill tonight, and he's gotten off to a nice start in 2025. The veteran righty is 5-1 with a tiny ERA of 1.71 so far this season. Pivetta spots his fastball well and uses two different types of curveballs to generate lots of swings and misses from hitters.
This New York offense has been on fire all year long, and they aren't showing any signs of slowing down. Aaron Judge is looking more and more like the best hitter of this generation. The 6'7" behemoth is hitting .423 with 11 homers and is once again on pace for one of the best offensive seasons in baseball history.
The Yankees' starting rotation has been bitten by the injury bug, but they've hung in there better than I thought they would. Losing both Luis Gil and Gerrit Cole has obviously hurt, but guys like Carlos Rodon have picked up the slack. The powerful lefty will get the ball tonight against this intimidating Padres lineup.
Rodon looks to finally be 100% healthy, and his numbers have been excellent so far in 2025. He's currently 4-3 with a nice ERA of 3.43, and his stuff has been fantastic. Rodon's nasty slider is a big reason why his K-rate puts him in the 91st percentile in all of baseball.
SD at NYY - 7:05 PM EDT
I hate fading this Yankees lineup at home, but there's a ton of value on this Pivetta over tonight. The big righty has a strikeout rate of 29.3% (85th percentile) and an impressive 28.2% whiff rate (71st percentile). He should be able to find 6 Ks with relative ease tonight, even in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
The Yanks won't strike out as much now that Jazz Chisholm is on the IL, but this lineup still has 4 hitters with K-rates above 22%. Pivetta should be able to keep them off balance enough to cruise over this number of Ks. Let's get it!