The New York Mets sitting at 22-13 will try to bounce back from a tough series loss last week against the Arizona Diamondbacks who are sitting at 18-16. Despite holding a solid record, the Mets have dropped back-to-back close games against the Cardinals and they’re looking to get their game back on track, but the Diamondbacks are locked in on them.
This is a key game for both clubs as they head into May looking to establish some consistency in different ways — the Mets as contenders making a run in the NL East, the Diamondbacks as a team trying to stay afloat in the dominant NL West.
The first pitch is scheduled for tonight at 9:10 PM ET at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Mets are sending RHP Griffin Canning to the bump, while the DBacks are countering with Ryne Nelson.
Based on those SPs, Oddsmakers have Arizona slightly favored on the moneyline at -120 and the Mets at +100. This is likely due to their home-field advantage and recent success in the first series. However, matchup-wise, we think this is far from even.
Griffin Canning of the Mets is putting together an excellent season so far. The RHP holds a solid 4-1 record with a respectable 2.61 ERA across 31 innings. His 31 Ks and 1.39 WHIP show he's been tough to square up, and his ability to work deep into games has given New York’s bullpen some breathing room whenever he starts. He’s only allowed 2 home runs all year, and opponents are batting a dismal .235 against him. Is he perfect? No, but he gets the job done.
Ryne Nelson of the DBacks, on the other hand, has struggled to find a rhythm. He’s only pitched 17 innings and already has a 5.82 ERA. He’s walked 4, allowed 20 hits, and while his 1.18 WHIP tells us he's not exactly wild, he's been very hittable. His lone win came with a bit of run support, but his underlying metrics scream regression. He makes it very difficult to throw money on Arizona.
This game tilts in the Mets’ favor purely from the mound matchup as Canning gives New York the kind of edge you look for on the road — a reliable starter who doesn’t beat himself down after a rough start and can keep the team in control early. He also gets a boost of confidence with his run support.
As for team form, New York may be coming off 2 straight losses, but this is still a team sitting atop the NL East. Those losses, so far, seem like just a little bump in the road. Their offense is producing with consistency, ranking top 10 in both AVG and OBP. Pete Alonso is the main reason. He's hitting .344 with 8 home runs and 31 RBIs on top of that. He also leads the team in hits and OPS with an insane 1.124. Simply put, he's crushing the ball right now and getting the job done.
Against all odds, Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto haven’t been as explosive, but they’ve both chipped in solid numbers. Soto has 5 dingers and 14 RBIs on the season, while Lindor is batting a respectable .290 with 6 home runs. The issue for the Mets lately has been situational hitting deeper in the lineup. However, for the most part, when Alonso is locked in like this, they can overcome that.
The Diamondbacks bring a more balanced lineup, but not quite as hot. Eugenio Suarez leads them in home runs with 10, which is tied for 3rd in the MLB, but he's batting just .189. That’s a big disparity, but clears the bags more than most. Geraldo Perdomo has been their most reliable run producer with 29 RBIs and a decent .292 AVG. Josh Naylor’s .304 batting average is undeniably a bright spot, though his power numbers are low with just 4 HRs.
Defensively, New York has been far more effective at keeping runs off of the board. They hold a team ERA of 2.87 which is good for 2nd best in the MLB and they average 9+ strikeouts per game. Compare that to Arizona's 4.49 ERA and a bottom-10 standing in most pitching metrics, and it’s clear who has the better staff on the mound.
Arizona’s bullpen has been hit-or-miss, and if Nelson gives up runs early, it’s unclear who can consistently stop a Mets offense led by one of the hottest hitters in baseball. The Diamondbacks have scored more overall runs than the Mets, but a lot of that comes from feast-or-famine games like where they went 11 runs on the Phillies last night. They lack the shutdown arms to pair with their offense.
This bet comes down to trust. Trust in the starting pitcher. Trust in the heart of the lineup. Trust in recent trends.
And right now, despite dropping 2 straight games, the Mets still check more boxes. They’re not going to let this slide too long, even if they’ve only won 1 game in their last 5.
Canning gives the Mets a clear pitching advantage right out of the gate, and Pete Alonso is on a tear that Arizona’s pitching is unlikely to contain. Sure, the Diamondbacks may have momentum from the last 2 games, but with Ryne Nelson on the mound and their bullpen stretched thin, the matchup favors the Mets to take this game.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Mets 6, Diamondbacks 3
Best Bet: New York Mets on the moneyline at +100
We see it like this. You’re getting value on a team with the better pitcher, the more dangerous slugger, and a top-tier bullpen. We’re not saying that Arizona can’t come back and do more damage, but with who’s starting for both teams, the Mets will get an early jump on them.