Happy Wednesday, fellow sports bettors! Tuesday was kind to us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-1, running our record to 44-45 on the young season for a deficit of 8.1 units.
As you probably expected, our only loss was by the dreaded hook on Bryce Miller of the Mariners. The young righty had trouble with his command last night against the Angels. He walked 5 batters, which was weird to see.
Thankfully, our bets on David Peterson and Carlos Rodon got home to give us a winning evening. The strikeout props have done well this season at 27-19 (+5.81), but everything else has sucked. Let's build on yesterday's success with 5 more strikeout props for Wednesday, April 30. Best of luck, my friends!
ATL at COL - 3:10 PM EDT
I usually avoid taking Overs at Coors, but the Rockies have been so terrible against lefties that I couldn't resist Sale in this spot. The reigning Cy Young winner hasn't had his best stuff yet this season, but he's getting more comfortable with his deadly slider.
Speaking of that deadly slider, we all know that breaking pitches don't break as severely at Coors. That being said, sliders aren't affected nearly as much as curveballs. I look for Sale to dominate, even in the hitter-friendly thin air of Colorado.
Sale's strikeout median is just 6 this season, but he's faced a lot of teams with high contact rates. He went over this line in 20 of 29 starts in 2024. Give me an Over to kick off the Hump Day card.
LAA at SEA - 4:10 PM EDT
This play just barely made the cut, and only because of how bad the Angels have been at the plate lately. Hancock doesn't have overpowering stuff, but his K-rate has improved from the 2nd percentile to the 45th from 2024 to 2025.
Hancock had a median K number of 4 last season, but I bumped that line all the way up to 5.5 because of LAA free-swinging lineup. Five Angels hitters are striking out more than 26.7% of the time. Give me this scary Over at a reasonable price.
LAA at SEA - 4:10 PM EDT
Hard Rock is being awfully generous with this price, as the rest of the market had this in the -140 to -150 range when I bet it. Like Hancock, Anderson is another guy who doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts.
That being said, Anderson should feast against a Mariners squad that's struggled against southpaws all year long. Seattle has the highest K-rate in baseball against lefties, and that's enough for me to take a stab at another Over.
One thing I like about Anderson this season is his chase rate, which is currently ranked in the 65th percentile. Look for Anderson to use his nice changeup to generate at least 5 Ks in this afternoon tilt.
AZ at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
I've always liked Burnes, but he's not racking up the strikeouts like he used to back in the day with the Brewers. The big right-hander's K-rate is just 21.9% this year, and that could drop even further against this contact-heavy Mets lineup.
The Metamucils are tied for the 5th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball against righties, and they've been pretty hot at the plate. They have an expected batting average of .293, so it could be a less-than-stellar outing for Mr. Burnes. Give me our first Under of the evening.
MIL at CWS - 7:40 PM EDT
I'm kicking myself for not betting this at -120 a few hours ago. I still got in at a decent price and would recommend playing this at anything in the -150 to -165 range. Smith has good stuff, but he's a young guy who's still learning how to pitch at the big-league level.
Smith draws a tough matchup, at least strikeout-wise, against Milwaukee tonight. The Brew Crew is tied with the Mets for the 5th-lowest K-rate in baseball against righties. Five Brewers hitters fan less than 19.5% of the time. Give me another Under to close out our Wednesday card. Let's cash!