Happy Tuesday, fellow sports bettors! Monday was tough for us on the MLB side of things. We went 1-2, running our record to 42-44 on the young season for a deficit of 9 units. Things have been frustrating lately, but we just have to trust the process and stay the course.
We got a nice win with Nick Martinez, who pitched brilliantly against St. Louis but only registered 3 Ks to cash our Under. We lost by the dreaded hook on Griffin Canning's Under, as he struck out the last two hitters he faced to bust our bet. Our final selection of the night was a head-scratcher, as Dustin May only got 3 Ks against the woeful Marlins.
Overall, though, the K props have done well this season at 25-18 (+4.91), but everything else has been a downward spiral. Let's shake it off and move on with 3 more strikeout props for Tuesday, April 29th. Best of luck, my friends!
NYY at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT
I've been getting burned on so many plus money Overs by the hook that I'm going to start taking some alt lines when the price makes sense. The -160 at Fanatics seems like a good bargain for us, especially since Baltimore has struggled mightily against lefties like Rodon all year long.
Just how bad have the O's been against southpaws? They rank dead last in WRC+ this season when facing lefties. That tells me that Rodon should be able to work deep into the game and rack up plenty of Ks.
Rodon has a nice history against Baltimore, and that makes me like this play even more. The veteran lefty has a career K-rate of 30.2% against this Orioles roster. Give me an alternate Over to kick off the Tuesday card.
AZ at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
If you don't have a Fanatics account, I highly recommend getting one for MLB strikeout props. FanDuel usually offers the most competitive lines, but every once in a while, Fanatics will outprice them, like with this one on Peterson. I actually made this line 3.5 instead of 4.5 because of Arizona's feisty lineup.
The D'backs put the ball in play quite well against lefties, as they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against them. Four Arizona hitters strike out less than 16% of the time, so Peterson will have to rely on getting ground balls instead of strikeouts in this one.
Lastly, I like that Peterson isn't an overpowering pitcher. He has a decent sinker and an okay slider, but his fastball tops out at less than 93 mph. That's probably why his median K number in 2024 was just 4. Take the Under.
LAA at SEA - 9:40 PM EDT
The Angels have been striking out a ton lately, so I like fading them in this spot tonight in Seattle. LAA has struck out over 33% of the time over the last 7 days. They also have the 2nd-highest K-rate against righties this season.
Miller should get plenty of strikeout opportunities tonight, especially since 5 Angels hitters fan more than 26% of the time. Miller has been just slightly above-average in the K department this season, but I look for him to dominate with both his splitter and his 4-seamer tonight at home.
Miller's median last season was 6 Ks, so envisioning him getting to 7 isn't that much of a stretch. He has a career K-rate of 27.9% against this Angels roster, and they have an expected batting average of just .202. Look for Miller to easily work 6 or 7 innings and go over this number. Best of luck, my friends!