The Houston Astros are off to a solid 13-11 start in 2025, which is only good enough to put them in 3rd place in the fierce AL West division. Even with the average start, Houston is still just a half-game behind the Mariners and Rangers for the division lead, and their bats have come to life of late.
The Kansas City Royals are off to a subpar 12-14 start to the season, which currently puts them in 3rd place in the AL Central behind the Tigers and Guardians. The Royals' starting rotation is rounding into form, but their bullpen remains a serious headache.
Which team has the edge in this series? I'll give out some thoughts below before giving out a best bet to give us some nice MLB action for the weekend. Best of luck, my friends!
I'm going to give the clear edge to Houston in the starting pitching department in this series. The three guys that the Astros are starting all have electric stuff. The same cannot be said for the Royals.
Seth Lugo will be on the mound for KC in Game 1, and I think it's impressive that he has ten pitches in his arsenal. However, the veteran righty has struggled to get ground balls like he did in 2024. That could hurt him against the likes of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez.
Houston will counter with Hayden Wesneski in Game 1 against KC. The former bullpen guy has looked incredibly comfortable as a starter so far. Wesneski's 4.4% walk rate puts him in the 87th percentile in baseball. We'll give a slight nod to Houston in Game 1 because of Wesneski's good current form and the fact that Lugo has been scuffling.
Game 2 looks like a huge edge for Houston, as I rate Framber Valdez as the 64th-best pitcher in the game this season. That's not elite, but it's a heck of a lot better than KC starter Michael Wacha, who I have ranked 112th.
Game 3 pits Hunter Brown against Kris Bubic in a battle of two solid starters. Still, though, I'd prefer Brown over Bubic in that one. Houston hits lefties better than they do righties, so that's another plus for the 'Stros.
Both of these teams have struggled at the dish to start the season. However, the Astros appear to be coming out of their funk while the Royals still seem to be lost at the plate. Bobby Witt Jr. is a beast, but KC really doesn't have anyone else who puts fear into opposing pitchers.
The Astros parted ways with Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, but they still have some big boppers in their lineup. Yordan Alvarez is always a threat to go deep, and I like what I've seen so far from Jeremy Pena.
I'll give a slight nod to Houston on offense in this series, even on the road. The Astros rank 23rd in WRC+ vs. righties, while the Royals rank just 29th. Houston also ranks 17th vs. lefties, while KC ranks just 22nd.
HOU at KC- 7:40 PM EDT (Fri), 7:10 PM EDT (Sat), 2:10 PM EDT (Sun)
This price implies that the Astros are just a smidge better than the Royals. I don't agree with that, as my power ratings put Houston as the 10th-best team in baseball and Kansas City as the 21st-best team.
The Astros should have the edge in both starters and their offense. The icing on the cake, though, is that Houston's bullpen is light years better than Kansas City's. The Astros rank 3rd in reliever K minus BB rate, while the Royals rank just 25th.
Kansas City could get Game 1 if Lugo figures things out. However, even if that happens, I like Houston's chances in Games 2 and 3 with Valdez and Brown on the hill. Let's play the 'Stros to win the series for a unit.