Happy Tuesday, sports betting amigos! Monday's MLB plays were not kind to us. We went 1-2, running our record to 36-33 on the young season for a deficit of 0.9 units. Losing by the hook on Aaron Nola's strikeouts kept us from a winning evening.
Gavin Williams looked fantastic against the Yankees, as he scored our only win of the night by easily going over his strikeouts prop. Tylor Megill beat us quite handily by making the Phillies lineup look even sillier than their mascot. Let's get right with 4 player props for April 22nd. Good luck!
NYY at CLE - 6:10 PM EDT
Bibee is the ace of the Guardians' staff, and I could see him getting lots of punch-outs just like his teammate Gavin Williams did last night. The 26-year-old's K-rate is down this season, but I look for that to change tonight against a free-swinging Yanks squad.
Bibee's strikeout median was 6 in 2024, so there's some implied value against this 5.5 number at reasonable juice. I made this line 6.5 instead of 5.5 because the Boys in Pinstripes have the 5th highest K-rate in baseball this season against righties.
I'm hoping Bibee will use his cutter more in this outing, as it was an effective pitch for him last season. He should be able to use that to get us at least 6 Ks tonight at home. Let's 'buy the dip' on Mr. Bibee.
BAL at WSH - 6:45 PM EDT
Parker doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he gets a nice matchup tonight against Baltimore. The Orioles have a stellar lineup, but they swing and miss a ton against southpaws.
Parker's median last year was 5 Ks, but I made an adjustment upwards to 5.5 to account for the O's high K-rate versus lefties. Five everyday players in Baltimore's lineup strike out at least 22% of the time.
Even with a not-so-impressive K-rate, I still think Parker can get it done tonight at home. He's been getting quite a bit of chase (68th percentile) on both his splitter and his curveball. Give me another Over!
PHI at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
The change of scenery seems to have helped Canning, who was a human gas can last year and the year prior with the Angels. Even though he's getting more swing and miss this season, I'm going to fade him against this tough Phillies lineup.
Canning has a lifetime K-rate of just 7.7% against this Philadelphia roster The Phils have put the ball in play well against righties all season long. They have six players with strikeout rates below 20.5%.
Canning's median in 2024 was 4, so I was a bit surprised to see the books hang a 4.5 instead of a 3.5. I'm thinking the books are maybe overreacting to Canning's good performance against the Cardinals last week. Let's play the Under.
TOR at HOU - 8:10 PM EDT
I went back and forth with this one but decided to add it to the card because of Toronto's low strikeout rate against righties. The Blue Jays have five hitters who strike out less than 18.5% of the time. That tells me that Blanco could have a hard time getting 5 Ks in this one.
Blanco walks a ton of hitters, and he's paid for it this season to the tune of a 6.48 ERA. He's also yet to pitch more than 5 innings in 2025. He's been better at home than on the road, but Daikin Park is a hitter's paradise, so there's always a risk of an early exit.
Blanco's median was 5 last season, but I adjusted that down to 3.5 because of the Jays lineup and the fact that Blanco rarely works deep into games. Give me another Under to wrap up the Tuesday card. Let's ride!