Happy Monday, sports betting family! I hope all of you had a fantastic Easter Weekend. I'm ready to get back to the MLB betting grind after getting three days off.
In our last performance, Thursday's plays were not kind to us. We went 1-2, running our record to 35-31 on the young season for a profit of 1.06 units. We also endured a painful loss over the weekend with our series bet on the Diamondbacks.
Overall, though, last week was very successful, as we posted a 9-6 mark for a profit of 4.3 units. Let's keep firing with 3 more strikeout props for April 21st. Good luck, folks!
NYY at CLE - 6:10 PM EDT
Some folks are ready to give up on Gavin Williams, but I'm not in that camp just yet. He does need to get his walk issues under control, but we have to remember that this guy is still just 25 years old. The former first-round draft pick still has top-notch velocity, as his fastball averages around 97 mph.
I love that Williams is 6'6", which gives him a ton of extension on all of his pitches (88th percentile). This makes that 97 mph fastball look more like 101! The former East Carolina Pirate also has an above-average curveball, which is why his whiff rate is in the 66th percentile this season.
We all know how powerful the Yankees' lineup is, but they're not quite as intimidating on the road without their short porch in right field. New York has five hitters with K-rates at 25% or higher. Williams also has a career K-rate of 41.2% against this Yankees roster.
PHI at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
I got this number at a local book called Action 247, but plenty of other spots are offering +115 or so for this under. I'm never crazy about fading a salty old dog like Nola, but the plus money makes it worth it tonight.
The Mets are off to a nice 15-7 start and currently have a 2-game lead over the Phils in the National League East. Their lineup has put the ball in play at a high rate all season long. The Mets have the 5th-lowest K-rate in baseball against righties.
What I like about New York is that even their power hitters like Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor all have strikeout rates well below 16%. The Mets also have 7 guys who fan less than 19% of the time. This under is scary, but we'll put our faith in this Metamucils lineup.
PHI at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
I like Megill, but I feel like this line is a shade too high against a feisty Phillies lineup. Sure, Kyle Schwarber strikes out a lot, but even he's putting the ball in play more than usual against right-handed pitchers.
Philadelphia has the 4th-lowest K-rate in baseball against righties, so Megill may not be able to generate much swing and miss. Speaking of swing and miss, Megill ranks in just the 48th percentile in whiff rate.
The Phillies have five everyday players who strike out less than 19.3% of the time. Give me an Under to close out the card. Let's ride!