The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to an 11-7 start in 2025, which is only good enough to put them in 4th place in the fierce NL West division. The Snakes have done an exceptional job at the plate, and their bullpen has been better than anyone expected.
The Chicago Cubs are off to a nice 12-9 start to the season, which currently puts them in 1st place in the NL Central over the Brewers by one game. Despite having some talented arms, Chicago's bullpen has struggled a bit so far.
Which team has the edge in this series? I'll give out some thoughts below before giving out a best bet to give us some nice MLB action for Easter Weekend.
I'm giving a huge edge to the D'Backs here. Corbin Burnes gets the ball on Friday, and I think he finally gets things in order after a slow start to the season. The Cubs have a less-than-stellar expected batting average of just .239 against Burnes lifetime. The Cubs will counter with former Brewer Colin Rea, who has gotten one start and three relief appearances so far.
Rea isn't terrible, but I don't think the Cubbies can expect a very long outing out of a guy who has a lifetime ERA of 4.50. Arizona's bats have stayed hot the entire season so far, as they rank 1st in WRC+ against righties.
The Saturday matchup favors the D'Backs in the starting pitcher department. Zac Gallen is usually pretty consistent, and I could see him keeping the Cubs' bats at bay on Saturday at Wrigley. Chicago will counter with Ben Brown, a youngster with very little MLB experience.
Sunday also favors Arizona, even though Merrill Kelly got roughed up a bit earlier this season. Even with that slow of a start, I still rank Kelly five slots better than Cubs projected starter Jameson Taillon.
I expect quite a few runs to be scored in this series. Both teams have stacked lineups, and both have hit righties exceptionally well to start 2025. The Cubs started slowly over in Japan, but they've been on fire since getting back to the States in late March.
If I had to pick a side for better offense, though, I'd pick Arizona. Even with the loss of Ketel Marte, the Snakes have still been crushing the ball. Arizona has seven guys in its lineup with expected slugging percentages of .449 or higher.
The Cubs have a pretty strong offense of their own, so don't expect a cakewalk for Arizona's pitchers. Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch can get hits against anyone, so look for the Cubs to put up quite a fight in this series.
AZ at CHC- 2:20 PM EDT (Fri), 2:20 PM EDT (Sat), 2:20 PM EDT (Sun)
I don't understand this price, so I'll gladly pull the proverbial trigger on it for a 1.5-unit bet over at DraftKings. The Cubbies are always tough at home, but my power ratings show that the Diamondbacks have the better offense, the better starting pitching, and the better bullpen.
Speaking of bullpens, I can't believe how well Arizona has done so far. They lead all of baseball in reliever K minus BB rate, while the Cubs rank just 28th. Even with Chicago's home-field advantage, the wrong team is favored in this series. Give me the D'Backs to win at least two out of three. Good luck, folks, and Happy Easter to you and yours!