The Detroit Tigers are off to a 9-6 start in 2025, which is good enough to give them a one-game lead in the American League Central over the Cleveland Guardians. Detroit's bats have been on fire of late, especially against right-handed pitchers.
The Milwaukee Brewers are off to a mediocre 8-8 start to the season, which currently puts them in a tie for 2nd place in the NL Central. Despite having some talented arms, Milwaukee's bullpen has struggled a bit so far.
Which team has the edge in this series? I'll give out some thoughts below before giving out a best bet to give us some nice MLB action for the next few days.
I'm giving a huge edge to the Tigers here. Tarik Skubal gets the ball on Monday, and I love how dominant he was against the Yankees last week. The Brewers have a paltry expected batting average of just .115 against Skubal lifetime. Milwaukee will counter with former Tiger Tyler Alexander, who has gotten two starts and two relief appearances so far.
Alexander isn't terrible, but I don't think the Brew Crew can expect a very long outing out of a guy who has a lifetime ERA of 4.50. Detroit's bats haven't been as intimidating against lefties (16 in WRC+), but that's not enough to scare me off them.
The Tuesday matchup favors the Tigers in the starting pitcher department. Jack Flaherty is usually pretty consistent, and I could see him shutting down the Brewers' bats tomorrow. Milwaukee will counter with Quinn Priester, a youngster with very little MLB experience.
Wednesday also favors Detroit, even though Reese Olson got roughed up a bit last Friday. Even with that subpar outing, I still rank Olson in the 63rd percentile of all starting pitchers. He's way more trustworthy than Brewers projected starter Jose Quintana, who I put in the 45th percentile.
Even though they only scored one run yesterday, Detroit's offense has been raking the ball all season long. They rank 5th in runs scored through the first 5 innings, so there should be plenty of run support for Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson.
Hitters like Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson have improved a ton over last season, and I don't think the betting market realizes just how good this lineup will be in 2025. I envision a big series for Detroit at the plate, even though they'll face left-handed starters in two of the three games.
Milwaukee has a pretty strong offense of its own, so don't expect a cakewalk for Detroit's pitchers. That being said, I think Skubal will have an easy time against a Brewers team that ranks just 20th in WRC+ against southpaws so far this season.
DET at MIL - 7:40 PM EDT (Mon), 7:40 PM EDT (Tue), 1:10 PM EDT (Wed)
I don't understand this price, so I'll gladly pull the proverbial trigger on it for a 2-unit bet over at DraftKings. Milwaukee is always tough at home, but I love the advantages Detroit will have both with their offense and their starting pitchers.
Also, I love the depth of the Tigers' bullpen. They rank a respectable 13th in reliever K minus BB rate, while the Brewers rank just 24th. I think this line should be in the -150 to -160 range, so give me those Motor City Kitties once again at a very nice price. Good luck!