Monday MLB slates are generally light on quantity, but there’s plenty of value in tonight’s player prop bets. With a mix of shaky SPs, hot bats, and a few plus-money chances, we’ve zeroed in on 4 props worth adding to your bet slip for the night. These picks span across 4 games and mix up Over and Under plays to give you a solid betting card that we think is going to deliver some serious value.
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Player Prop Odds: +750
We’re going big on our opening prop bet — if you're hunting value, this is your swing-for-the-fences play.
James Wood has gone deep in two of his last five games and one of those games was a 2-dinger night. He’ll go up against Paul Skenes, which isn’t a great matchup for him, but the Pirates bullpen isn’t so hot. Even then, Skenes isn’t coming out of the gates on fire like he did last season. However, if the Nats can get through Skenes in 5 or 6, Wood has a great shot at cashing this big prop bet.
Wood’s power is absolutely legit. His hard-hit rate is climbing, and against a shaky Pirates staff who’s giving up too much barrel contact, this is the kind of spot that lines up for a long ball.
At +750, even if Wood doesn’t go deep, it’s the kind of plus-money dart that makes sense based on matchup alone. If this one cashes, and there’s a good chance it will, this will cover all of your other bets on the night.
Player Prop Odds: +165
This one’s all about the matchup. Matt Chapman is facing Taijuan Walker, and that’s been a nightmare scenario for right-handed hitters. Walker has allowed no runs over his last 10.2 innings and is in midseason form early. This isn’t what we expected from him, but that’s who we’re getting this year.
Chapman has not managed a hit in his last 7 games and he’s historically struggled against high-velocity arms and is hitting under .200 lifetime against pitchers who rely on fastballs and sliders — Walker’s bread and butter.
With plus-money attached to this under, we’ll take the bait against one of the toughest arms in the league and a batter that isn’t making contact.
Player Prop Odds: +170
Bryan Reynolds has been quietly reliable for the Pirates thus far and has a strong shot to drive in a run tonight against RHP Brad Lord. Reynolds has logged at least one RBI in 7 of the Pirates’ last 8 home games as favorites. On top of that, he’s getting consistent hits which is sure to drive in some RBIs. In fact, in his last 8 games alone he’s had 7 hits and a few of those were XBHs.
That trend matters. Reynolds is batting in the heart of the lineup and will likely have a couple of chances with runners on base against a shaky Nats team. Lord isn’t having a bad season, but he’s still giving up bases and Reynolds could cash this before the bullpen even gets warm.
The price at +170 is excellent for a guy in an undoubtedly run-producing role.
Player Prop Odds: +180
Austin Riley is a streaky hitter, but when he gets going, the multi-hit games follow fast and that’s where we’re at right now. He’s recorded at least one single in each of his last 6 games and 5 of those were multi-hit games.
Riley has solid career numbers against LHPs and is starting to lift the ball again. With the Braves desperate to get on track offensively, we’re looking for Riley to take the lead. If Atlanta’s offense shows any signs of life, Riley should be right in the middle of it.
Easton Lucas is starting out hot this year, but he’s not impenetrable. This feels like the kind of matchup where Riley can rack up 2+ hits, especially with the way he’s seeing the ball lately.
Player Prop Odds: +550
Alright, we said we were dropping 4 hot MLB prop bets for tonight’s slate, but we couldn’t skip this one. Sure, this is not officially in our top 4, but this deserves a nod.
Wilmer Flores has homered in 2 of his last 5 games, and while Walker is a tough RHP, Flores has a knack for sneaky power in matchups like this. He went yard against Will Warren and Tony Santillan, both of which are solid pitchers.
It’s a long shot, but one worth sprinkling if you're looking to pair a home run prop with Wood on your bet slip.
You bet!
There’s a lot to like on a short slate, especially when you dig into pitcher splits and, of course, the recent player trends.
James Wood brings massive upside, while Chapman’s fade spot gives you a contrarian edge. Reynolds and Riley are in prime RBI and hit spots that we simply can’t pass up, and all 4 picks offer either plus-money or strong justification through matchup data.
Be sure to check the lineups before locking anything in and watch for any weather updates. A lot can happen between now and the first pitch.
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