The Detroit Tigers are off to a 7-5 start in 2025, which is good enough to give them a half-game lead in the American League Central over the Kansas City Royals. Detroit's bats have been on fire of late, especially against right-handed pitchers.
The Minnesota Twins are off to a disappointing 4-9 start to the season, which currently puts them in 4th place in the division. Despite having a talented lineup, Minnesota has struggled at the plate through 13 games.
Which team has the edge in this series? I'll give out some thoughts below before giving out a best bet to give us some nice MLB action for the weekend.
I'm giving the edge to the Tigers here. Reese Olson gets the ball on Friday, and I love how well he keeps the ball on the ground. The Twins have a paltry expected batting average of just .213 against Olson lifetime. Minnesota will counter with David Festa, who will be making his first start of 2025.
I'm a big believer in Festa, but he simply doesn't have enough big-league experience to be the favorite in this spot tonight. He has nasty stuff, but he tends to walk guys and ranks in just the 17th percentile in ground ball rate.
The Saturday matchup is a toss-up in the starting pitcher department. I have no clue what to expect from Detroit starter Jackson Jobe, who is a top prospect but hasn't looked too comfortable in his first two starts. At the same time, I'm not a big fan of Minny SP Chris Paddack, so there's really no edge to be found in the Saturday game.
Sunday favors Detroit, mainly because of the emergence of Casey Mize. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is finally living up to his potential, as he's 2-0 this year with a 0.77 ERA. I could see Mize mowing down this rather anemic Minnesota offense.
Minnesota will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson (AKA: The Law Firm). I like Richardson, but he's just not on the same level as Mize right now. Detroit also has a whopping .457 expected wOBA against him through 29 plate appearances.
The main edge for Detroit in this series will be their hot bats. Just how hot have these Tigers hitters been? They rank 1st in WRC+ against righties this season, and they'll get to face righties in all 3 games in this series.
Youngsters like Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson have improved a ton over last season, and I don't think the betting market has caught on to just how good this lineup can be in 2025. I envision a big series for Detroit at the plate, even though the weather in Minnesota can get dicey.
The Twins' offense has been painful to watch so far this season, and I don't see them snapping out of their funk any time soon. Five Minnesota hitters have strikeout rates above 25%. That won't play well against Olson and Mize.
DET at MIN - 8:10 PM EDT (Fri), 2:10 PM EDT (Sat), 2:10 PM EDT (Sun)
I don't understand this plus-money price, so I'll gladly pull the proverbial trigger on it for a 1-unit bet over at DraftKings. Minnesota may have a slightly better bullpen, but I love the advantages Detroit will have both with their offense and their starting pitchers.
Minnesota always seems to have loads of potential, but they just never can seem to get over the hump. Detroit, on the other hand, seems to be coming into their own in almost every phase of the game. Take the Motor City Kitties at this disrespectful price. Best of luck!