Happy Friday, sports betting friends! Thursday was a good day for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 1-0-2, running our record to 23-21 on the young season for a deficit of 1.15 units.
The Angels smoked the Rays to put us into the win column early in the day. This LAA lineup is a lot more dangerous than some folks realize. I think they could stay hot for the next week or two before regressing.
Our other two plays ended up in pushes, as the Twins and Brewers both tied their opponents after 5 innings. Let's keep the positive vibes rolling with 6 more bets for Friday, April 11th. I hope you all have outstanding weekends!
SF at NYY - 7:05 PM EDT
What am I missing here? I know Marcus Stroman isn't the greatest starter, but this is way too cheap of a price to give us on the best offense in baseball. The Yankees lead MLB in runs scored through the first 5 innings.
Aaron Judge has owned SF starter Robbie Ray, as he's hitting .375 with 3 homers against him through just 13 plate appearances. It wouldn't surprise me if Judge hit another dinger or two on Friday night.
Speaking of Ray, he's been dogged by injuries over the last few years. He still has decent stuff, but his overall velo is down, and I think the Yanks can tee off on him here at home. Give me the Boys in Pinstripes!
WSH at MIA - 7:10 PM EDT
I talked a lot last year about how I think Mitchell Parker could be a dynamic starter in the big leagues. That's starting to slowly come to fruition, as the young lefty is 2-0 with a tiny ERA of 0.73 this season. Numbers like that tell me that Parker shouldn't have much trouble with the Miami bats.
Speaking of the Miami bats, they've been flat-out awful to start the year. Miami ranks 29th in first 5 runs scored, so I don't expect them to give projected starter Cal Quantrill much run support to work with.
Washington, on the other hand, has been hitting the ball very well. The Nats rank 9th in first 5 runs scored, and I like some of the young hitters in their lineup. We'll take a shot with them in the first half of this game.
DET at MIN - 8:10 PM EDT
This is probably my favorite play on the Friday card. The Tigers have impressed the heck out of me so far this season. They lead MLB in WRC+ against right-handers and rank 3rd in first 5 runs scored. Guys like Riley Greene should be able to do some damage against Twins starter David Festa.
Festa has pretty good stuff, and he posted a nice K-rate last season. That said, he still has a problem with leaving his breaking stuff out over the plate. If that happens tonight, we could see lots of big flies from the Tigers.
Reese Olson is a steady starter who does a lot of little things well. He never walks many guys, and his ground ball rate is usually one of the best in the league. I think he shuts down this pretty anemic Minny lineup. Give me the Motor City Kitties.
LAA at HOU - 8:10 PM EDT
The Angels cashed for us yesterday at a nice plus-money price, so let's run it back with them tonight in H-Town. I like Ronel Blanco, but he usually has trouble with his command at least one inning per game.
That could be an issue against an LAA team that's red hot at the plate. Mike Trout gets all the hype in this Halos lineup, and rightfully so. However, guys like Jo Adell and Logan O'Hoppe are pretty tough in their own right.
LAA ranks 5th in first 5 runs scored and 6th in WRC+ versus righties. That's enough for me to take a shot at this plus money!
ATL at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
Brian Snitker had no problem pulling Elder after just 4 innings of work last week, and I could see him doing the same thing tonight in Tampa Bay.
The Rays' temporary home park has a short porch in right field that could spell trouble for a pitch-to-contact guy like Elder. Elder doesn't have much strikeout potential, as his median K number last year was only 4.
Throw in the fact that Tampa Bay doesn't fan much against righties, and it's easy to like the Under here. Also, Elder has gone under this line in 7 of his last 11 starts.
ATL at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
I didn't want to lay -150 for Over 5.5, so I'm getting a little greedy and playing a juicy plus-money alternate line here with Bradley. Even with that short porch in right, I think Taj could dominate this Braves lineup that's been scuffling so far this season.
Bradley had a median K number of 6 last season, but I increased that to 7.5 because of the Braves' tendency to strike out a lot versus righties.
Atlanta has 5 guys who strike out at least 25% of the time, so Bradley should get his fair share of opportunities. Give me the Over!