The White Sox and Guardians are squaring off in a crucial AL Central matchup tonight, with Cleveland holding a 1-0 series lead after a 1-0 win in the opener last night.
Chicago is desperate to snap a brutal 6-game losing streak and get their season on track after a dismal season last year. On the other hand, the Guardians aim to keep their momentum rolling at home in Progressive Field.
This game features a pitching duel between Sean Burke for the White Sox and Logan Allen for the Guardians, with both teams showing some serious contrasts in their recent form.
Can the Sox get this skid under control?
The odds paint an interesting picture for this game.
The Guardians are favored heavily on the moneyline at -192, while the White Sox sit as underdogs at just +160. The run line has Cleveland at -1.5 with +114, and Chicago at +1.5 with -135. The total runs are set at 7, with the under slightly favored at +100. These odds simply go to show the Guardians’ recent edge, but the value on the White Sox as underdogs is worth a closer look as well.
On the bump, Sean Burke takes the ball for Chicago. He’s already 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, striking out 10 batters in 10.1 innings. He’s been solid, but not great, allowing just 2 home runs and keeping walks low with 4.
Meanwhile, Logan Allen counters for Cleveland with a 0-1 record, an even worse 6.75 ERA, and a 2.25 WHIP. Allen has struggled, giving up 1 home run and 5 walks in just 5.1 innings while striking out 7.
Burke’s numbers coming into tonight tell us he’s more likely to keep this game close, while Allen’s early-season woes could spell trouble against a White Sox lineup that has some pop and is trying to get their rhythm.
The team stats really highlight the offensive gap. The White Sox are batting just .199 with 32 runs and 9 home runs, while the Guardians are hitting .211 with 35 runs and 13 home runs. Neither team is coming out strong, but it does appear the Guardians are producing more at the plate.
Cleveland’s pitching has been somewhat shaky, however, with an overall 4.55 ERA compared to Chicago’s 3.75. This matchup could hinge on whether the White Sox can capitalize on Allen’s struggles and get to the Guardians’ bullpen early in the game.
For the White Sox, Andrew Benintendi has been a bright spot in the lineup. He’s leading the team with 2 home runs, 6 RBIs, and a .290 batting average. That might not be elite, but he’s a key piece in this lineup, especially against a pitcher like Allen who’s been leaving pitches over the plate.
Chicago’s team SLG of .321 isn’t great, but they’ve shown they can string hits together when it matters and manufacture some runs. On the flip side, the Guardians are led by Jose Ramirez, who’s crushing it with 4 home runs, 310 RBIs, and a .316 AVG. Steven Kwan is also a problem, hitting .316 with a .366 on-base percentage — much lower than last year, but it’s still early in the season. Cleveland’s offense is clicking, but their pitching has been a weak link.
Recent trends tell a story as well. The White Sox are on a 6-game skid, losing to teams like the Tigers, Twins, and the Guardians in the series opener. This isn’t a great way to open their AL Central campaign. Their offense has been quiet, scoring just 0.9 runs per game on average. But their pitching, with a 3.75 ERA, has kept them somewhat in the games.
The Guardians have won 2 of their last 5, including their 1-0 win over Chicago yesterday. They’re averaging 3.5 runs per game, but their 4.55 ERA and 24th-ranked pitching staff are a big concern. On top of that, they have one of the worst WHIPs in the MLB at just 1.46. This game could come down to which team exploits the other’s weaknesses first.
The standings add just a bit of context. Cleveland is 4-6, sitting 2.5 games back in the AL Central, while Chicago is 2-8, 4.5 games behind. The White Sox need a big win to stop the bleeding and remain relevant, and this matchup gives them a chance to do just that.
The White Sox are the play in this spot, and we’re backing them on the moneyline at +160.
While this might not be a popular bet, it starts with the pitching matchup. Sean Burke has been far more reliable than Logan Allen, who’s been getting shelled with a 6.75 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP. Burke’s ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park gives Chicago a real edge. Allen, on the other hand, is a liability against a White Sox lineup that has players like Andrew Benintendi ready to pounce on mistakes.
The Guardians do have the better offense, and there’s no doubting that. Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan are undeniably dangerous, but Chicago’s pitching has been solid enough to keep games closer than expected. The White Sox’s 3.75 ERA ranks 13th, and they’re allowing a .217 OBA, which is 9th-best. Cleveland’s pitching, with a 4.55 ERA and a .267 OBA, is one of their weaker spots that Chicago can take advantage of. If the White Sox can get to Allen early, they’ll have a real shot to steal this game on the road.
BettorsInsiders Prediction: White Sox 3, Guardians 2
Best Bet: White Sox on the ML at +160
The odds really make this a no-brainer. Getting +160 on a team with the better pitcher and a desperate need for a win is too good to pass up and a quick way to make some cash. Cleveland’s 1-0 series lead and home-field advantage are baked into the -192 moneyline, but we’re simply not buying it. The White Sox have the tools to turn this around, especially with Burke on the mound.
We expect Chicago to snap their losing streak with a big performance from Benintendi and a quality start from Burke. We’re taking the Sox on the moneyline at +160 and cashing in on the underdog value.