Happy Wednesday, sports betting family! Tuesday was just so-so for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 2-2, running our record to 19-20 on the young season for a deficit of 6.61 units.
Things started off beautifully with Tarik Skubal and the Tigers easily beating the mighty Yankees. Cole Ragans also took care of business against a Minnesota squad that still looks clueless at the plate. Unfortunately, though, that's where the fun ended.
Freddy Peralta pitched brilliantly at Coors Field against the Rockies, but we ended up losing his strikeout prop by the dreaded hook. Dylan Cease followed up that pain by giving up tons of runs to the A's to lose our final bet of the evening on the Padres. Let's shake it off and get hot again with 2 player props and 3 best bets for Wednesday, April 9th.
MIA at NYM - 1:10 PM EDT
I was hoping for a decently juiced 5.5 but don't have any problem taking this nice chunk of plus money. Miami has been striking out left and right to start 2025, and I don't see that changing with this young group of hitters.
Megill isn't the most reliable of pitchers, but he was more of a strikeout guy last season. His 25% K-rate this year makes me feel encouraged. The big righty faced Miami once last season and fanned 8 against them.
This matchup is perfect for Megill, as the Marlins have 5 hitters with strikeout rates above 27%. Let's cheer for Megill to serve up lots of fried fish sandwiches this afternoon!
NYY at DET - 1:10 PM EDT
The Yankees are starting to strike out an awful lot against righties, and that could be a problem against a bulldog like Jack Flaherty. The veteran righty has absolutely dominated this roster, as he's racked up a K-rate of 43.6% against them through 55 batters faced.
Flaherty looked fantastic against the White Sox during his last start on April 4th. He fanned 7 hitters in just 5.2 innings of work, and I could see him doing the same thing today at home in Detroit.
Both his slider and curveball are powerful put-away pitches. I wouldn't mind sprinkling a ladder on Flaherty up to 8 or 9 today if you feel froggy.
BAL at AZ - 3:40 PM EDT
Y'all know I love me some Brandon Pfaadt, and I love backing him at home even more. He didn't look that sharp against the Nats last Friday, but I think this is a good bounce-back spot for him.
Yes, the O's lineup scares me, but I love that Pfaadt never seems to walk anybody. He has a tendency to give up homers, but most of them are of the solo shot variety.
I've never been a big believer in O's starter Dean Kremer. He doesn't have elite stuff, and he often struggles with his command. That could be an issue against a D'backs offense that rates out as 7th in weighted runs created plus against righties. Give me the Snakes!
TOR at BOS - 6:45 PM EDT
Something is up with Kevin Gausman, and I'm going to be fading him until he looks more like his usual self. The veteran righty just isn't getting much break on his splitter, which is his go-to pitch when he gets into trouble.
Boston has been knocking the cover off the ball lately, as they rank 4th in runs scored through the first 5 innings of games. That tells me that they should provide plenty of run support early on for Tanner Houck. Let's play the BoSox!
LAA at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
I'm going to take a shot with Yusei Kikuchi at a nice underdog price on the road. This Tampa Bay offense has been atrocious, and I could see Kikuchi putting together a dominant performance through 5 or 6 innings.
Kikuchi's advanced metrics this season don't look as impressive as last year's, but I expect that to change as he gets a few more starts with his new team. Ryan Pepiot has excellent stuff, but he's still a young guy who often struggles to keep the ball on the ground.
I think the Angels have the better lineup and the better starting pitcher in this one. This plus money price is a no-brainer for me. Let's go Halos!