Happy Monday, fellow sports bettors! The weekend was just so-so for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 4-4, running our record to 15-16 on the young season for a deficit of 5.88 units.
A bullpen meltdown by the Toronto Blue Jays against the New York Mets was especially painful, given that we had a nice plus price on Chris Bassitt. MLB relievers have gotten more and more unpredictable over the last few seasons, so I'm switching to a new approach that'll focus more on wagers in the first 5 innings.
After starting out the year at 4-0, I'm a bit disappointed in how things have gone lately. Keep in mind, though, that cold streaks are inevitable during a 7-month MLB season. Let's shake off this downturn with 2 player props and 2 best bets for Monday, April 7th. Good luck, my friends.
TEX at CHC - 7:40 PM EDT
I'm going to ride the Nate Eovaldi train until it dies. The veteran righty threw a masterful 9 innings against the Reds during his last start, and I think he can cool down this red-hot Cubbies lineup.
Eovaldi's insanely high K-rate of 33.3% tells us that he's locked in like never before. The same thing can't be said for Cubs starter Justin Steele. The young lefty just hasn't looked comfortable yet this season, as evidenced by his expected ERA of 6.22.
I look for Steele to improve soon, but this Rangers lineup has hit lefties well so far this season (8th in WRC+). Let's roll the dice on a pitcher like Eovaldi at a nice underdog price. The +110 at DK is too good to pass up.
MIN at KC - 7:40 PM EDT
Y'all just knew I had to make a wager on Simeon Woods Richardson (AKA: The Law Firm) at some point. A lot of folks don't think too highly of the young righty, but I still think the kid has plenty of potential. Woods Richardson has also done quite well against the Royals in his career, as KC has an expected batting average of just .134 against him.
I've never been a big believer in Michael Lorenzen, so I'll take this opportunity to fade him in a divisional game. The veteran right-hander has an expected wOBA of .337 against this Twins lineup in his MLB career. Lorenzen ranked near the bottom of the league in both K-rate and walk rate a season ago.
Minnesota's offense has been kind of sluggish to start the season, but I do like that they rank 9th in runs scored through the first 5 innings of ball games. Give me the Twinkies at plus money because I think they should be favored here.
BAL at AZ - 9:40 PM EDT
I respect the heck out of Zach Eflin, and I almost took a shot with the O's today against the D'Backs because of him. That being said, Eflin has never been much of a strikeout pitcher.
His median K number was 5 last season, but I adjusted that down to 4 in my projection because of this feisty Arizona lineup. Speaking of this D'Backs offense, they remain one of the most dangerous in all of baseball.
They rank 5th in WRC+ against righties, and I could see them knocking Eflin out of this game earlier than he's used to. This one may get sweaty, but I'll roll with the Under.
SD at ATH - 10:05 PM EDT
Severino resurrected his career with the Mets last season, but I still like to fade him in the strikeout department from time to time. The 31-year-old righty still throws decently hard, but his whiff rate and chase rate usually aren't all that impressive.
Severino started relying more on ground ball outs last season, and I think he sticks with that approach in 2025. His median K number was 5 last year, but like with Eflin, I adjusted that number down to 4 because of the opponent in this spot.
The Padres do an excellent job of not striking out, as they have 5 guys with K-rates less than 21%. Give me the Under and let's hope that the San Diego bats can do some serious damage early on against Sevy. Let's ride!