Friday’s matinee at Fenway Park sets up a good clash between 2 teams heading in different directions early in the season. The St. Louis Cardinals, coming off a dominant 12-5 win over the Angels, are 4-2 and swinging the bats well. The Boston Red Sox, sitting at 3-4, are looking for some consistency but haven’t quite found their rhythm yet. Again, it’s still very early in the season, but sometimes these signs can tell us something.
Despite playing at home, Boston opens as a slight favorite on the moneyline. The Cardinals, on the other hand, come in with value on the plus side.
The first pitch is set for 1:10 PM, and with two experienced arms on the mound and early-season urgency setting in, many would look at this and figure it could go either way. But there’s a strong case to back one side with confidence.
There’s still plenty of time to get your bets in, but you’ll have to hurry!
Walker Buehler is back for Boston, and he’s still shaking off some rust. His season debut was a bit rougher than expected as he gave up 4 earned runs in 4.1 innings and just didn’t look as sharp. His 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP simply tell the story. He’ll need to find his command quickly, especially against a Cardinals team that has been punishing mistakes.
On the flip side, Erick Fedde takes the mound for St. Louis coming off a strong 6-inning outing, allowing just 1 run with a WHIP of 0.33. He’s been sharp early on this season, and the matchup favors him against a Red Sox lineup that’s been inconsistent.
St. Louis enters this one firing on all cylinders. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 games, including back-to-back offensive outbursts and their 2 losses were in extra innings. Ivan Herrera is coming off a 3-homer game and leads the team with 8 RBIs. Lars Nootbaar is hitting .417 and setting the tone at the top. This team is making pitchers work for their outs, driving up pitch counts, and jumping on mistakes.
Boston’s numbers just don’t stack up the same way right now. Chances are they’ll find their rhythm at some point, but it hasn’t shown yet. Their team batting average sits at .229, and they’ve hit just 7 home runs. That ranks middle of the pack. Wilyer Abreu has been the lone standout, with 2 homers and a .471 average, but outside of him, the Red Sox haven’t been doing enough damage at the plate.
We feel that this is a case where recent form matters more than preseason expectations.
The Cardinals are hitting .298 as a team, which is the 3rd best in the league. They rank 2nd in runs per game with an average of 7.0 and are one of the toughest teams to keep off the basepaths right now. They’ve shown they can rally late or jump on teams early.
The Red Sox? They’ve struggled to put together full 9-inning efforts and that comes back to haunt them. They’ve been outscored in 3 of their last 5 games and have leaned too heavily on Abreu’s bat to carry the load. Buehler’s struggles only amplify the concern heading into this afternoon’s matchup.
What really swings this matchup is how these 2 starters are trending. Fedde looked in complete control in his first start. Buehler looked like he was still trying to find his timing. Between the starting rotation and the bullpen, the Cards are allowing opponents to only a .181 batting average while Boston allows a .258.
Until Buehler proves he’s back to his usual self, it’s risky to back Boston when their starter is laboring and their offense is ice cold.
Everything lines up for the Cardinals in this Friday afternoon game and the odds are just the icing on the cake.
They’re the hotter team after one week of play, they’ve got the more reliable pitcher on the bump, and they’re doing serious damage at the plate right now.
Boston may be at home and sportsbooks are calling them the favorites, but home-field doesn’t swing this matchup enough to change the outlook. We just don’t see this playing out any other way.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Cardinals 7, Red Sox 3
Best Bet: Cardinals on the ML (+105)
We just have to take the Cardinals on the moneyline at +105 for this game. Pass on the run line as they’re giving the Cards 1.5 runs at -185. For this bet, you’re getting a team that’s clearly in a groove against a team still trying to find its footing. With Fedde throwing well and the Cardinals’ lineup absolutely dominating, this is a great spot to back the underdog. Don’t overthink it—ride the hotter hand and cash the check.
We expect St. Louis to stay hot and hand Boston another early-season loss.