Happy Friday, fellow sports bettors! Thursday was not a good night for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 1-2, running our record to 11-12 on the young season for a deficit of 5.1 units.
Our first 5 Under fell flat in the Houston vs. Minnesota game, as Joe Ryan was uncharacteristically touched up for 4 runs through 4 innings. I'm kicking myself for not betting the full game Under 7.5, as it would've cashed for us. Nick Lodolo failed to get 6 strikeouts against the Brew Crew to pour more salt into the wound.
Thankfully, Charlie Morton racked up a ton of Ks against Boston to keep us from the dreaded golden sombrero. Let's get back in the win column with 2 player props and 3 best bets for Friday, April 4th. Good luck, sports betting family!
STL at BOS - 2:10 PM EDT
Let's go back to the well and fade this Boston lineup. The BoSox put up plenty of runs against Charlie Morton yesterday, but they fanned 10 times against the 41-year-old righty. Erick Fedde doesn't have electric stuff, but I see no reason why he can't get us at least 5 Ks.
Fedde has an above-average sinker and a pretty good sweeper that can give right-handed batters a tough time. The 32-year-old righty's median K number was 5 last season, but I'd bump that to 5.5 for this K-prone Red Sox lineup.
SD at CHC- 2:20 PM EDT
You think I would've learned my lesson with these first 5 innings plays, but as my wife would say, I'm a slow learner. I respect this Padres team, but Randy Vasquez is prime fade material. The 26-year-old ranked dead last in K-rate in 2024, and he had trouble with his command against Atlanta last week.
I love Shota Imanaga and want to bet on him as much as I can in 2025. The crafty lefty never seems to walk anyone, and he has a knack for pitching out of jams. I think he can hold this prolific Pads lineup at bay for at least 5 innings. Go Cubs Go!
ATH at COL - 4:10 PM EDT
I was shocked that this line wasn't 6.5 when it came out. Bido's median K number was 6 last season, and he gets a gravy train matchup against a pitiful Rockies lineup. Colorado has six hitters with K-rates above 33% this season.
Bido hits 95 on the gun regularly, and I like his cutter and his slider quite a bit. The thin air of Coors is a bit concerning because it often messes with a pitcher's spin rate. Even still, I can't help but take all this plus money on a line I think should be 6.5.
NYY at PIT - 4:12 PM EDT
This play is about as sharp as a marble, but why in Sam Hill is this line so low? The Pirates' lineup flat out stinks! All they have is Oneil Cruz, and Max Fried should be able to contain him just fine. The former Braves lefty ranked in the 96th percentile in ground ball rate a year ago, even with all the injuries he endured.
The Yanks ranked 1st in WRC+ a season ago against righties, and that was before they discovered the magical torpedo bats that we've been hearing about for a full week now. Mitch Keller isn't a bad starter, but the Boys in Pinstripes will be too much for him. Lay the run line!
AZ at WSH - 6:45 PM EDT
Bradon Pfaadt may not be a household name yet, but there's a reason why the D'Backs just gave him a huge contract extension. The 26-year-old righty does an excellent job of changing speeds to keep hitters off balance. I don't see him having any trouble with this lackluster Nats lineup.
Arizona's bullpen was a major weakness for them a year ago, but they look totally different so far in 2025. D'Backs relievers rank 2nd in the ever-so-lovable K minus BB rate this season. Give me the Snakes at what looks like a very reasonable price.