Happy almost Friday, fellow sports bettors! Hump Day was not a good night for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 0-2-1, running our record to 10-10 on the young season for a deficit of 2.63 units.
It was just a rough day all the way around. I woke up sick with massive allergies thanks to the blooming trees and then had to deal with tornado warnings throughout the night. To make matters worse, the A's and the Tigers gave us two Ls to put us on the wrong side of the ledger.
At least the Royals held on for a push in our earliest selection. Let's get back in the win column with 2 player props and a best bet for Thursday, April 3rd. Good luck, sports betting family!
BOS at BAL - 1:05 PM EDT
I have a soft spot in my heart for 41-year-old Charlie Morton. The veteran righty is still a workhorse, and his curveball still has plenty of break. I guess that's why the O's had no problem giving him $15 million to NOT retire in the off-season.
Morton gets an outstanding matchup today at home against the slumping Boston Red Sox, who have the 5th highest strikeout rate in baseball so far at 28.2%. Rafael Devers is in the middle of the worst slump of his career, as he's fanned 15 times in just 23 at-bats this season.
Morton's median strikeout number was 6 last season with the Braves. I'd bump that up to 6.5 today against the scuffling BoSox lineup. Charlie racked up 6 or more Ks in 17 of his 30 starts in 2024.
HOU at MIN - 4:10 PM EDT
I prefer paying the extra juice for the Under 4 on this, but if you want to grab Under 3.5 at plus money, be my guest. Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan are two of my favorite pitchers in the American League, and I think they both pitch a gem on what's supposed to be a cold day in Minnesota.
Brown really turned things around last season after getting rocked early on. The young righty has a K-rate of 30.8% against this Twins lineup through 78 batters faced. Minny's expected batting average against Brown is also a paltry .199.
Y'all know I've had a man-crush on Joe Ryan since he burst onto the scene a few years ago. He strikes out a ton of hitters, and he rarely walks anyone. The 28-year-old righty should cruise against a Houston lineup that ranks just 28th in WRC+ so far this season.
CIN at MIL - 7:40 PM EDT
I was shocked that this line wasn't 6.5 when it came out. Lodolo only got one strikeout in his first start against the Giants last week, so maybe the books have downgraded him a bit. Even still, I think this is a great bounce-back spot for the young southpaw.
Milwaukee has the 4th highest K-rate overall this season, and they also fan 29.2% of the time against lefties. That tells me that Lodolo should get lots of swings and misses with his sinker and curveball.
Lodolo's median last season was 6 strikeouts, and he went over this total in 12 of his 21 starts. Let's close out the night with another Over. Let's go!