The Minnesota Twins head into tonight’s rubber match against the White Sox as heavy road favorites, sitting at -187 on the moneyline with the White Sox priced at +155, making them a tempting underdog. Despite each taking a win in this early series, these odds feel a bit too lopsided, but that’ll work in our favor. The run line sits at Twins -1.5 at -106, while the total is set at solid 7.5 runs with the over at +100 and the under at -120.
Oddsmakers are undoubtedly leaning on Pablo López’s experience to carry Minnesota to their 2nd straight win, but the White Sox aren't necessarily going to go away quietly. This is a team that’s already shown serious signs of life just a week into the 2025 season. It’s still too early to see what they’re made of, but they’re definitely not the 2024 White Sox.
The over/under is where things get a bit more interesting. With a total of 7.5 runs, you’re looking at a matchup that the books expect to be tight. That makes sense when you consider that Chicago is near the top of the MLB with a 2.20 ERA through 5 games and López brings solid command and strikeout stuff into his season debut.
On paper, it looks like a low-scoring battle between two RHPs in early April weather that rarely helps bats.
The Twins finally notched their first win of the season Tuesday night with their big 5-run sixth inning to a comeback victory over the Sox. That puts them at 1-4, and while the win was much-needed to get them on the board for the first time this season, it didn’t completely mask their early struggles.
Carlos Correa continues to be the heartbeat of the lineup, and Jose Miranda’s clutch hit on Tuesday showed he can be a spark plug when they need it most. Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers give the Twins a fairly decent mix of pop and speed, but the loss of Royce Lewis with his hamstring leaves them without one of their most explosive bats. He’s expected to be back in the lineup around the 22nd of April.
The good news for Minnesota is that Pablo López is a fairly reliable SP. Last year’s 3.92 ERA over 32 starts shows he has some consistency. He limits hard contact, and when he's on, he can go very deep into games with well over 100 pitches. But he'll be under pressure to stop the bleeding early in the season, especially against a White Sox team that’s starting to believe in themselves, which is quite a jump from last season.
Chicago, meanwhile, is off to a 2-3 start, which doesn’t look great, but there's something different about this group. After a brutal 41-121 finish last year, one of the worst MLB teams in the history of the game, this season already feels more competitive.
Sean Burke, who debuted earlier in the week with 6 solid innings with no runs and 3 Ks, gets his 2nd shot on the mound tonight. He’s raw, but he throws strikes and doesn’t seem rattled by the big stage. If he’s half as hot as he was in that first game, he’ll be just fine.
The Sox lineup isn’t what we’d call star-studded, but it’s been effective up to this point. Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert, and Lenyn Sosa are putting the ball in play, and Korey Lee returns to the starting catcher role after sitting last night. There’s just enough contact, just enough speed, and a pitching staff that’s kept them in every game.
The White Sox bullpen has also been a strength, allowing just 5 runs total through the first 4 games. That gives Burke some breathing room if he can get through the order twice — maybe a 3rd time.
Don’t overlook the environment either. This is the White Sox’s first chance to win a series in 2025, and they’re at home with a crowd that, while not massive, is finally engaged after years of pure misery. Momentum may not be quantifiable, but it’s definitely present.
This game is a classic early-season test of whether you trust the proven vet (López) or the hot hand (White Sox pitching). The Twins may have more name recognition and a little more depth than the Sox, but they’re still a team that’s trying to find its footing and we don’t see it happening tonight.
The White Sox are a bit looser, more aggressive at the plate, and clearly pitching above expectations. Even after Tuesday’s loss, this team hasn’t looked overwhelmed.
López gives the Twins a real shot to settle down and get into a rhythm, but this White Sox pitching staff is dialed in right now and that cannot be understated. Burke showed dominance in his debut, and if the Sox give him early run support again, he’ll have enough behind him to go toe-to-toe with López.
It might be a close game, but we’re sticking with the value side here. We simply cannot pass up +155 on a moneyline bet for the White Sox right now when they’re looking this good.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: White Sox 3, Twins 2
Best Bet: White Sox +155 ML
At plus money, with home field, strong bullpen support, and early-season confidence, Chicago is undoubtedly the smarter play for tonight’s game. We’re calling a 3-2 White Sox win, as Burke outduels López just enough to secure the series. Also, don’t be shocked if this one stays under too — especially with temps in the low 40s and two arms capable of missing bats.