The Astros stumbled to a 25-33 start by the end of May 2024 and looked to be running out of gas at an organizational level following a seven-year stretch of making the ALCS or better and lifting two World Series titles.
Their strong second half of the season led to a postseason berth but preceded an early exit to the Tigers in the Wild Card round. Houston’s lineup looks noticeably different from the one that underachieved last year.
Alex Bregman is in Boston, and Isaac Paredes will man third base and a top-of-the-order batting slot, while Christian Walker will play first and hit in the middle of the lineup.
Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Framber Valdez remain franchise cornerstones, with recent call-up Cam Smith and new rotation member Hayden Wesneski expected to provide net new contributions to the team.
Texas could not repeat their strong play from a championship-winning 2023 and finished third in the West with 78 wins a season ago.
Their offseason included corresponding moves, which sent Nathaniel Lowe to Washington and brought in Jake Burger as his replacement at first base, along with agreeing to terms with Joc Pederson to add outfield power.
The team welcomed back Nathan Eovaldi on a three-year extension while bidding farewell to Max Scherzer and relievers Kirby Yates and José Leclerc. Bruce Bochy’s squad is projected for 85.5 wins in his fourth season in Arlington.
Continuing the theme of teams who could only shake their heads at what took place last season, the Mariners wasted a chance at a division title during a down year for the Astros and Rangers.
Seattle had one of the best rotations in Major League Baseball, led by Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, and posted the lowest ERA while walking the fewest batters of any team and ranked third in FIP.
Offensively, the team ranked 29th of 30 in batting average, leaving 1,117 runners on base, the fourth-most in the bigs. Center fielder Julio Rodriguez struggled mightily over the first half of the year, and the M’s did not do anything of note this offseason to change their run-scoring ability. Instead, they opted to re-sign Cal Raleigh following a 34-homer, 100-RBI campaign and rely on a Rodriguez bounceback.
The Athletics and Angels find themselves playing in a different sandbox than the rest. Expectations are low given their rebuilding states, with oddsmakers posting identical win totals of 71.5 heading into Opening Day.
The Athletics, who will play their home games in a minor league stadium in Sacramento, took steps to solidify the team’s future on the field by re-signing Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker, trading for Jeffrey Springs, and inking a $67 million free agent deal with Luis Severino.
As for the Angels, they signed Yusei Kikuchi and traded for slugger Jorge Soler in an effort to put a competitive product on the diamond.
Their success largely relies on the health of Mike Trout and players like Logan O’Hoppe, Luis Rengifo, and Nolan Schanuel taking steps toward All-Star productivity levels across an entire campaign.
Similar to the bookmakers, we find those to be too much of a stretch in 2025.
Straight Trifecta: 1st HOU / 2nd SEA / 3rd TEX (+550)
Our prediction is that Houston will have fewer difficulties early in the 2025 season, not see much of a change in production at third base with Paredes instead of Bregman, and have a potentially dominant pitching staff with Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti. The Astros have won 63% of their games against AL West foes since 2021 and are rightfully the favorites to claim their eighth division crown since 2017.
Texas and Seattle are projected for 85.5 and 84.5 wins, respectively. The Rangers are a difficult team to project because of the injury risk associated with several of their key players, but they are more than capable of securing a playoff berth at full strength.
The Mariners are already dealing with an injury to George Kirby, but the top of their rotation is solid enough to reduce the impact of his absence for now. Much of this prediction rests on Rodriguez bouncing back, Raleigh having another 25+ homer season, Randy Arozarena protecting both in this lineup, and the purely gut feeling that Seattle will make a move at the deadline if they don’t fall flat from April to June.