The National League Central division is baseball’s most historic collection of teams. The division is home to four of the eight franchises in Major League Baseball, with more than 20,000 games in the lengthy history of the sport. The Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, and Reds organizations began play between 1876 and 1882.
The President of the United States, when the Chicago White Stockings (now Cubs) played the Louisville Grays in April 1876, was famed war hero Ulysses S. Grant. Nearly 150 years later, the Cubbies will open the season on March 18 in Tokyo, with Chicago’s Northside team favored to win the Central in 2025.
Milwaukee, the youngest franchise in the bunch by 85+ years, won their second consecutive division title and fifth overall last season. The Brewers went 32-20 against their rivals in the Central, the only team to post a number above .500 in division play.
The Brew Crew came within a half-inning of reaching the NLDS last October before soon-to-be-traded closer Devin Williams blew the save in Game 3 of their Wild Card series against the Mets.
Shortstop Willy Adames had a career year that led to him signing a massive free-agent deal with the Giants, and Milwaukee is now the second-favorite in the Central this season.
Chicago rebounded from a brutal stretch in May and June last season to finish above .500 but six games out of a Wild Card spot. The Cubs then got aggressive in the offseason, trading for three-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker and bolstering their lineup and pitching staff with veteran talent like Justin Turner, Colin Rea, and Ryan Pressley. They own the Central’s highest preseason win total of 85.5, slightly ahead of Milwaukee’s 83.5.
Cincy, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis are not expected to compete for playoff berths again in 2025. The Reds’ young, talented group could have sniffed a playoff chase if not for a 15-28 record in one-score games last season and a penchant for struggling against left-handed starting pitching (.380 win percentage).
Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz led baseball in steals and strikeouts while finishing as one of three players to hit 10+ triples, 20+ home runs, and 30+ doubles. Cincinnati added Brady Singer to their rotation by sending Jonathan India to the Royals and acquired Gavin Lux from the Dodgers to replace India at second base.
The Pirates and Cardinals had relatively quiet off-seasons. Pittsburgh let Bryan De La Cruz and Connor Joe walk in free agency while St. Louis bid farewell to Paul Goldschmidt, who signed with the Yankees on a one-year deal.
The Cardinals rotation is still led by Sonny Gray but did not exercise options for the aging Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, paving the way for a more rejuvenated group in 2025. Between the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates, none are expected to crack the 80-win mark or make a push in the race for the division.
MIL to Win Division +260
CIN Under 78.5 Wins -110
Milwaukee’s lineup should be able to absorb the loss of Adames’ bat through the emergence of young players like Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Ortiz, as long as they continue to receive strong contributions from William Contreras and Christian Yelich.
The latter is a concern with Yelich’s offseason back surgery, but it also could be viewed as a longer-term solution to an issue that lingered for years. Freddy Peralta leads a rotation that filled in gaps this offseason with Nestor Cortes and Jose Quintana, not exactly names that excite but arms that have proven effective over many seasons. With a bullpen anchored by closer Trevor Megill, we believe in the Brewers’ ability to win a third straight Central crown for the first time.
As for the Reds, injury concerns for Hunter Greene, Matt McLain, and TJ Friedl are difficult to get past. Their bullpen was a weakness in 2024, with closer Alexis Diaz having his worst professional season in almost every statistical category of note, and we aren’t sure which version of him to expect this year.
Elly De La Cruz will be the engine that powers this offense, but his strikeout rate remains among the highest in baseball. We will be rooting for this team to stay healthy and overcome some obstacles in 2025 but can’t back that sentiment with our hard-earned money.