The Dodgers and Yankees head into Game 2 of the World Series with LA holding a 1-0 lead, thanks to a historic walk-off grand slam from none other than Freddie Freeman.
In this matchup, Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Yankees. He’s facing off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers. Both teams are packing plenty of offensive power, but with their current pitching and bullpen performances, we might see a lower-scoring game than last night.
The Dodgers enter as the -148 favorites on the moneyline, with an 8.5 over/under on total runs.
Public betting already shows a strong favor for LA, with most bets landing on the Dodgers, though looking at the money wagered on each side we see that this game is more balanced.
Rodon has had a shaky postseason, with an ERA of 4.40. However, he rebounded in the ALCS, allowing just 3 runs and a single home run across 10 2/3 innings against Cleveland.
Rodon’s ability to limit power hitters from going deep could be pivotal here. This is especially true against a Dodgers lineup that thrives on home runs.
While he’s held opponents to 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his last 8 outings, Rodon has had trouble against the Dodgers in past matchups. LA hitters slugged .519 against him across 81 at-bats.
Yamamoto has had mixed results in the playoffs, posting a 5.11 ERA.
However, he’s looked a bit sharper recently, allowing only 2 runs in his last 2 outings (over the course of 9 1/3 innings). Yamamoto pitched well against the Yankees in the regular season, going 7 scoreless innings and striking out 7.
While he may not pitch deep into the game due to a recent injury, the Dodgers’ bullpen has been fairly reliable as they’re boasting a 3.16 ERA and an 83% strand rate in the postseason.
We think this game will be a game of the pitchers — as if last night wasn’t just that.
The Yankees, who led the AL with nearly 5 runs per game in the regular season, have struggled to bring that power into the playoffs.
4 of their top 8 hitters this postseason are hitting below .200, so offensive production from the bottom of the lineup remains a question mark we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Rodon will need more run support than he’s seen recently if the Yankees are going to even this series at 1 game a piece.
The Dodgers’ offense is on fire, scoring 6.4 runs per game in the playoffs, with a whopping 21 dingers.
They’ve been particularly strong at home, averaging nearly 6 runs per game.
Freeman, Mookie Betts, and the rest of the top order have all come up big when needed, and against a Yankees bullpen that has been inconsistent in high-stakes moments, they’re positioned to stay hot. Despite the pitchers, we can’t wait to see what they bring to the table.
Both teams have tightened up their bullpen performances in the playoffs. The Yankees’ relievers posted a 2.56 ERA and the Dodgers’ bullpen at 3.16.
This tells us that even if the starters struggle early, the relievers should keep the game close.
The nearly week-long break before the World Series and the starters going deep last night means both bullpens are relatively fresh, so expect quick moves to the bullpen if either starter shows early signs of weakness. Dodgers might leverage this to jump on a dominating lead in the series.
While both teams have impressive offensive firepower, Game 2 could turn into a lower-scoring contest due to the recent uptick in bullpen performances and a pair of starters looking to assert themselves on the biggest stage in sports.
With Rodon’s history of struggles against the Dodgers and LA’s top bats in excellent form, our big pick here is the Dodgers on the moneyline at -148. Their home advantage and a more consistent lineup give them the edge over a Yankees team that’s still searching for postseason consistency in the middle and bottom of their batting order. Stanton simply can’t handle it all by himself.
BettorInsiders Prediction: Dodgers 5, Yankees 3