Tonight, the New York Yankees are looking to close out their ALDS against the Kansas City Royals in Game 4. Unfortunately for the Blue Crew, the odds strongly favor the Yankees. With Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Yankees and Michael Wacha pitching for the Royals, it's shaping up to be another tough night for Kansas City.
Moneyline: Yankees -155, Royals +130
Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+110), Royals +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under: 8 runs (Over -105, Under -115)
These odds show that the bookmakers have confidence in the Yankees, especially with Cole, their ace. Kansas City is a +130 underdog, a price that really shows the uphill battle they face with Wacha on the mound, particularly given his vulnerabilities this season.
The big storylines revolve around pitching in this ALDS matchup. Gerrit Cole was pretty stellar in Game 1, where the Yankees cruised to a victory 6-5. There’s no reason to believe that won't be the case tonight. Cole is simply overpowering, and when he's on the mound, the Yankees’ chances of winning go up significantly — as shown by the odds.
Michael Wacha, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency. His barrel rate ranks in the bottom 30% of MLB, which is concerning given that the Yankees' lineup, featuring the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, thrives on punishing mistakes. Wacha’s changeup, his most-used pitch, hasn’t been as effective this season as it has been in the past. While it keeps batting averages low, the damage done when hitters connect has been insane.
Juan Soto also has a favorable history against Wacha. Soto has been a standout in this series, consistently finding ways to get on base, and his ability to handle Wacha's changeup puts him in an excellent position to shine again tonight. In game 1 alone he went 3 for 5 which included a double, so he’s hitting with power.
The Yankees are in the driver’s seat here. There’s no doubt about that.
With Cole on the mound and an offense that has shown it can deliver in key moments, it’s tough to see how Kansas City can bounce back and even up the series. The Royals have had their moments in this series, but tonight’s matchup is simply a pitching mismatch they can’t win with.
Prediction: Yankees win, 5-2.
Best Bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Given Soto’s track record against Wacha and the good matchup, we’re locking in Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases as our top bet for the game. Soto has shown he can handle Wacha’s pitching, and with Wacha’s struggles this season, we expect Soto to find some success tonight whether it’s a few singles or even XBH. At +115, the odds offer really good value for a player who has consistently produced throughout this series.
If you’re looking to place a more traditional bet, the Yankees -1.5 (+110) on the run line also offers a nice return. Considering Cole’s form and the team’s sense of urgency to wrap up the series, we don’t see any other way than the Yankees beating the Royals by 2+ runs. However, our main confidence lies in Soto's individual performance.