Cap your week off in style by diving into our MLB betting guide for Friday! After some deep analysis of the board, we've found 3 best bets for August 16. Good luck, sports investing family!
Update: We just added 2 player props below! Enjoy!
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SEA at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT
Yes, I need my head examined for fading Paul Skenes at home, but hear me out. Sure, Skenes is an absolute beast and I don't see the M's doing much against him. However, Seattle has every advantage in this game except the starting pitcher slot.
That said, Skenes typically only works about 6 innings per start. That means that the Mariners will have a significant edge in the latter third of this ball game. Also, it's not like Logan Gilbert is exactly chopped liver.
I'm betting we get a max effort from Gilbert because he'll be fired up to have a bonafide pitcher's duel with Skenes. As bad as Seattle's bats have been, their lineup is still way more dangerous than Pittsburgh's. Give me the live dog!
MIN at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
Andrew Heaney has impressed me this season, but I'm thinking that he'll have a tough time with this Twins lineup. Minny has three hitters with expected slugging percentages over .513 (Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton). Buxton is dealing with a hip issue, but I still like this Twins offense even if he can't go.
Simeon Woods Richardson has pitched pretty well for what's been essentially his rookie season. "The Law Firm" uses a nasty slider to limit hard contact and he shouldn't have much trouble with a Texas lineup that's underperformed all year long.
As we talked about yesterday, I like Minnesota's bullpen quite a bit more than Texas's. Guys like Griffin Jax (who I saw pitch several times in AA with Pensacola) and Daniel Duarte are straight up filthy coming out of the pen. Give me the Twinkies at a price that's simply way too cheap!
ATL at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
Homer Alert! Y'all know that I've been a diehard Braves fan since I was 8 years old. However, faithful readers know that i have no trouble fading them if it's what's best for our bankroll. This isn't one of those cases!
Spencer Schwellenbach has been a pleasant surprise for the Bravos and he shouldn't have any trouble with this light-hitting Angels lineup. The young rookie has 6 pretty dynamic pitches, so it's tough for hitters to figure him out.
Atlanta's offense has been a major disappointment this season, but they just exploded for 13 runs against San Fran on Wednesday. Michael Harris come off of the IL in style by smashing a grand slam. Let's lay the moderate price and hope those ATL bats stay HOT!
SEA at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT
I know this is a high number for a strikeout prop, but it's high for a reason! This Mariners lineup strikes out more than any team in baseball. None of these guys have seen Paul Skenes yet, so I expect most of them to look silly against his unbelievable stuff.
The books are being generous with this plus money, simply because Skenes has a median K number of 8 through 15 starts. That means they only made an adjustment of just half a strikeout for this K-prone M's lineup. Welcome to Value City!
By my estimation, this number should be 9.5 instead of 8.5. Seattle has 8 guys in their lineup that strike out more than 24% of the time. The only real non-K target is newcomer Justin Turner, but even he may have trouble catching up to Skenes's 100 mph fastball.
MIN at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
We mentioned the decent season that SWR is having above, but he's far from being a strikeout guy. He doesn't throw overly hard, and this Texas lineup has a high contact rate against righties this season.
The Rangers have 6 guys with K-rates below 20.5%, so there's not a lot of K potential for Woods Richardson tonight. SWR's outs line of only 15.5 (shaded to the Under) also suggests only 5 innings of work from him in this outing.
I highly doubt he can come up with 1 K per inning. The Under is the only way to play this one! Let's do it!