We split a 4-pack of MLB plays on Wednesday to run our yearly record to 180-147. Even with the 2-2 mark, we were still able to churn out a happy meal sized profit since the Marlins cashed as a nice +136 underdog.
The Thursday card is light, but both selections give us a little daytime action. Who doesn't love some day baseball? Good luck, sports investors!
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SD at PIT - 12:35 PM EDT
I'll take backing a scary starting pitcher for $200, Alex! Hey, I'm not crazy about Randy Vasquez and I know it's hard to sweep a team on the road. That being said, this line is flat-out disrespectful to a San Diego squad that's been on fire since the All Star break.
The Pads have won 13 of their last 15 overall and 9 out of their last 10 on the highway. Even though Vasquez isn't that great, he has done okay over his last 3 starts. The young righty has only allowed 7 earned runs over that span.
San Diego has crushed right-handed pitching all season long, as they're 3rd in baseball in WRC+. The Padres have also been swinging well lately, as they rank 6th in WRC+ over their last 30 days. The P'Rats rank just 28th and 23rd in those categories, respectively.
Sure, Pittsburgh has the better starter going with Luis Ortiz. However, I don't think this line takes into the consideration the huge edges that San Diego has with both their bats and their bullpen. Give me one of the hottest teams in the league at this discounted price!
MIL at ATL - 12:20 PM EDT
I've never been a big believer in Frankie Montas, but I think the move from Cincy to Milwaukee should do him some good. The young righty isn't a power pitcher, but I think this line is about a strikeout too low.
Though Montas's K-rate isn't elite, his chase rate is a little more respectable (49th percentile). On that same note, this Braves lineup loves to swing at pitches out of the zone. Atlanta has 7 hitters who strike out at least 24% of the time.
Lastly, Montas had a bit of success just a couple of weeks ago against the Braves. He struck out 6 in that outing on July 24th and a similar performance this afternoon wouldn't surprise me in the least. Take the Over!