Happy Tuesday, sports betting compadres! We got a much-needed 5-0 sweep last Friday to get last week's results into the green. Our 2024 MLB record now sits at 116-82, and we feel good about the Tuesday card.
Last week was a great reminder about the importance of patience as a sports investor. Nobody wins every day, so you have to keep reasonable expectations and a clear mind. Best of luck!
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We've cashed a couple of T-Mac Overs this season, and we lost on him last week when we faded him with an Under bet. McKenzie is looking more like his old self again after a series of tough luck injuries.
McKenzie is still just 26 years old and he has one of the most underrated sliders and curveballs in the game. His K-rate of 22.3% is right at average (49th percentile), but it jumps up to 30% against players from this Reds team.
Speaking of this Cincy squad, they still struggle to put the ball in play against righties. The Reds have 3 everyday players with K-rates of 25% or higher. Look for McKenzie to get at least 6 Ks through 5 or 6 innings of work, even at the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.
I'm playing this one for increased juice on the Alt-line just because Mikolas is far from being a strikeout pitcher. If you want to go the O4.5 at plus money, I'm with that route as well. Even with Mikolas average stuff, he should generate some strikeouts against this Pittsburgh lineup.
The P'Rats continue to have one of the highest K-rates in all of baseball, regardless of whether they're facing righties or lefties. Pittsburgh has 5 players with K-rates above 24%.
Even though I'm not a huge Mikolas fan, the 35-year-old veteran still spots his fastball pretty well. Hopefully he can paint the corners enough times in this one to get us to the pay window!
This Royals team has been a cash-cow for us in the Under K props department all season long. There's no reason to get off that train, especially against a guy like Stroman, who relies more on ground balls than getting swings and misses.
I love Stroman's competitive spirit, but he only throws around 90 mph and his breaking stuff isn't as sharp as it used to be. His expected ERA of 4.53 suggests that the regression monster could be lurking around the corner at any minute.
Kansas City did a fabulous job of putting the ball in play against Carlos Rodon last night. I expect them to do the same tonight against Stroman. This number is low for a reason! Take the Under!
Sears has been another one of our go-to guys for Unders in 2024. His breaking stuff is phenomenal, but he's never generated a serious amount of whiff. I don't see the 28-year-old lefty getting many Ks against this Padres lineup.
San Diego puts the ball in play very well as a team. They have one of the lowest K-rates in the league against lefties, and 6 of their everyday players have K-rates below 17%! That's insanely good!
Why do I think there's value in this 3.5 number? The plus money certainly helps, but when factoring in Sears's low K-rate of 17.7% (20th percentile) and the Padre hitters high contact rate, I think this line should be 2.5 instead of 3.5. Give me another Under!
Let's finish the card off with another late-night Under! Hicks has proven to be a pretty decent starter for the G-Men after being used as a reliever for the Jays and the Cardinals.
The 27-year-old has no problem hitting 96 mph on the gun, his MO is getting ground balls with his sinker. Hicks gets a tough matchup, at least K-wise, against Houston tonight. The Astros have 7 players with K-rates below 18.4%.
I'm not sure why this line is 4.5 instead of 3.5. I guess it's because the books may be factoring in Hicks's K-rate from previous seasons when he was a bullpen guy. We'll take the Under and rely on Houston to keep being a tough team to strike out!