Our massive winning streak with MLB player props came to an end last night, as we ended up 1-2 on the evening. Even with that lackluster night, we're still sitting pretty at 105-73 on the year.
Kyle Gibson pitched a whole lot better than I expected to burn our Under prop on him. Rockies starter never found his groove and couldn't cash our Over K prop ticket on him. Thankfully, Tyler Anderson stayed under his strikeouts number to keep us from the golden sombrero.
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Y'all already know I love me some plus money Unders! Although T-Mac cashed an over for us last week, he still doesn't have what I would call overpowering stuff.
McKenzie's K-rate is right around average, but his low Chase Rate (14th percentile) tells me that his breaking pitches still don't have the bite they once did. His fastball also only tops out at around 91 mph.
McKenzie gets a tough matchup (at least K-wise) against the Royals tonight. Kansas City has cashed Unders for us at a high clip in the strikeouts department this season. The Royals lineup has 7 players with K-rates under 20%. Let's get this party started with an Under!
This is as square as they come, but I still think there's enough value to pull the trigger. Glasnow has one of the highest K-rates in baseball at 33.2%. That's good enough to put him the 94th percentile, which is phenomenal.
Glasnow throws his fastball 96 mph, but it really looks more like 100 mph because of the insane amount of extension that he gets. It must be nice to be 6'8"! He's gone over this total in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Pittsburgh has done a better job of putting the ball in play lately, but they're still pretty terrible in that department against righties. Look for Glasnow to dominate this P'Rats lineup on his way to 8 or more Ks tonight.
I was stunned to see that this line was 5.5 instead of 6.5. Tampa Bay strikes out a ton against southpaws, as they have 4 everyday players with K-rates above 24%.
Luzardo missed a couple of starts due to injury, but his slider still leaves most hitters looking dazed and confused. The 26-year-old lefty has a terrific whiff rate of 31.2% that puts him in the 88th percentile in baseball.
Luzardo also has a 96 mph fastball and a 95 mph sinker to use when he sees fit. Look for Luzardo to rack up plenty of Ks against free swingers like Jose Siri and Randy Arozarena.
Here's another number that just looks way too low. We've played Kirby to stay Under this line a few times this season, but that was against low strikeout squads like the Astros and the Royals.
The A's definitely do NOT fall into that category. Oakland's lineup is filled with guys that swing for the fences, as they have 6 players with K-rates above 25%. Kirby should mow them down quite easily tonight with his 96 mph sinker.
Kirby looked fantastic in his last start, as he struck out 8 through 6 innings of work against Houston. Oakland's lineup shouldn't give him too much trouble. Let's play yet another Over!
We haven't done a Win prop in quite a while, so let's get back to it. This is a great bounce-back spot for Imanaga after he was shelled for 7 runs by the Brewers in his last start. Don't worry Cubs fans! I don't think there's any reason to panic.
The team decided to give Imanaga 11 days or rest before his last start against Milwaukee and I think that backfired. Pitchers are OCD about their routines, and the slightest change usually throws them off. What better way for Imanaga to get right than to pitch against a Pale Hose team that's lost 11 straight.
Even with the blowup start, Imanaga still has one of the best ERAs in baseball at only 1.86. The 30-year-old doesn't throw overly hard, but he has pinpoint control with most of his pitches. I hate the Cubs bullpen, but it's still better than the White Sox. Go Cubs Go!