Friday brought us a 2-2 evening, as both Nestor Cortes and Zack Wheeler picked up wins for us to run our record to 80-59. We suffered a tough beat on our Tyler Alexander Under strikeouts play, as he bit us with the dreaded hook.
I'll be in lovely Las Vegas for the next 3 days, but will do my best to get the MLB card out each morning. If there's no time for writeups, I'll post the plays on X. Have a marvelous Monday, sports betting amigos!
HardRock is being awfully generous on this one, so we'll fire on it. Megill struck out 4 batters in only 4 innings of work against Milwaukee on March 31. The young righty has spent the last 7 weeks on the injured list with a shoulder ailment.
I expect the Mets coaches to be very careful with Megill since this will be his first start back. It wouldn't surprise me if they have him on a pitch count of around 60 or so. That would lead to an Under in this spot.
Besides the potential for lower usage, Megill gets a tough K matchup against Cleveland. The Guardians have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball against righties. Let's play the Under!
Olson is a tough guy to figure out. He has a lot of strikeout potential, but he prefers to rely more on getting ground balls. While there's nothing wrong with that approach, it makes it hard to rack up lots of strikeouts.
Olson's K-rate is about average, as he's been striking out 21.7% of hitters (47th percentile). However, Olson will face the Royals tonight. Kansas City just doesn't fan too often against righties.
The Royals have 7 everyday players with K-rates below 19%. Even if Olson goes deep in this game, I still expect him to stay Under this total.
After a terrible start, it finally looks like this Astros club has found their footing. Houston has won 8 of their last 10 and Valdez has only allowed 7 earned runs over his last 3 starts. Kyle Tucker continues to mash the ball for Houston, and has proven to be a possible MVP candidate so far.
Even though they won a series against Texas over the weekend, the Angels are still a complete mess. They can hit a little bit, but they miss Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon tremendously. LAA has only won 4 of their last 10, and Reid Detmers has given up 17 earned runs over his last 3 starts.
Even with their early season woes, I still trust Houston's bullpen more than LAA's. The Astros also rank 4th in WRC+ against lefties, while the Angels rank 8th. Give me Framber at plus money to get the Dub!
Arizona's lineup has struggled so far against righties, and it won't get any easier for them tonight against Yamamoto. The Dodgers righty has an impressive 27.5% K-rate to go along with a Chase Rate that ranks in the 83rd percentile. Yamamoto uses a 95 mph 4-seamer with a 90 mph splitter to keep hitters guessing.
The D'Backs are going with an opener in this one, as Joe Mantiply gets the ball. He typically only throws an inning or so before giving way to the bullpen. Speaking of that Arizona bullpen, they flat out stink!
Arizona relievers rank 28th in MLB in K minus BB percentage. The Dodgers bullpen ranks 12th in that category. Let's hope that Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman can get us a lead early. Go Blue!
I think the wrong team is favored in this spot. Sure, Kansas City has been impressive to start the season and I like some of their young players. However, I'm just not a big believer in Michael Wacha.
The veteran righty has given up 10 earned runs over his last 3 starts and he's also been walking more hitters than normal. The Tigers touched Wacha up for 2 homers and 4 earned runs back on April 28th.
I already touched a little on Reese Olson, but I love that his groundball rate ranks in the 89th percentile. The young righty has a great change-up that fools hitters quite often. Detroit also has a huge bullpen edge in this one. Give me the Motor City Kitties!