Our 5 pack of MLB picks ended up 2-2 with a rain out on Monday. The Phillies came back to win against the Mets but not early enough for our First 5 wager. George Kirby bit us with the hook by getting 6 strikeouts, which burned our U5.5 bet on him.
Thankfully, Michael Lorenzen and Ross Stripling both stayed under their respective strikeout totals to get us to even. Tuesday's card features 4 player props and a best bet. We'll also try a little something new!
FanDuel just hung this number, as Parker will start Game 2 of the doubleheader between the Nats and Pale Hose. I think this is a great opportunity to jump on Parker before the market realizes his strikeout potential. He's a young lefty that gets great extension on his 92 mph fastball.
Parker proved that he can get on a roll with Ks, as he struck out 8 against Houston earlier this year. As we all know, the Astros strike out the least amount in all of baseball. Sure, the sample size on Parker is small, as he's only pitched in 5 MLB games.
That said, Parker's median K number is 4, but with the South Siders striking out a ton vs. lefties, I made the number 5.5. It also doesn't hurt that Parker struck out 416 hitters in 329.2 innings of work in the Minors.
Nola is one of the main horses of this Phillies staff and something tells me he pitches deep into the game today against the Mets. Philadelphia's bullpen is somewhat taxed, so look for Nola to toss 6 or 7 strong innings to give some of the boys in the pen some rest.
The veteran righty gave up 4 runs against the Jays in his last start, but this should be a solid bounce back spot. Mets hitters have a robust 270 plate appearances against Nola, but their expected batting average is just .223.
I love that Nola has a devastating 91 mph sinker with some extension that ranks in the 93rd percentile. Oh, it also doesn't hurt that Philly ranks 5th in WRC+ versus righties. Let's explore a new market by betting Nola to get the W today. (Note: this is an early start time)
Simply running it back with our game that was rained out last night. I just love how Trevor Williams has started this season. He's never had dominant stuff, but he's finally learning how to hit his spots and miss a lot of barrels.
The same thing can't be said for Chi-Sox starter Chris Flexen, who has an expected slugging percentage allowed of .446. This Nats lineup isn't packed with stars, but guys like CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. should be able to do some damage against Flexen.
The Nats ranks 14th in weighted runs created against righties. The South Siders rank just 29th. Give me Washington at this very cheap price. This is an early start time, so get those bets in quickly, folks.
A little juicier than I would like, but y'all know how much I love playing this Astros team to NOT strike out a lot. The 'Stros have 7 hitters with K-rates below 17.4%. One nice thing about Houston is that they put the ball in play, regardless of whether they face a righty or a lefty.
Sears has done better with his walk rate this season, but he's never been a prolific strikeout pitcher. The 28-year-old has a K-rate of only 17.8%, which only puts him in the 21st percentile in baseball.
Sears locates his fastball well at times, but he only tops out at around 92 mph. Because of that, I'm betting these Houston hitters can hold him to 4 Ks or less. Let's take the Under!
Let's take another ace pitcher to get a win at plus money! Gilbert is one of my favorite pitchers to bet on and I came close to laying the -155 or so with the Mariners straight up. However, I think Gilbert will work deep into this game, much like his teammate George Kirby did last night.
The Royals have a feisty lineup that doesn't strike out that much, but outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, they don't have a ton of pop. Kansas City ranks just 21st in WRC+ this season against righties.
Gilbert shouldn't have any trouble carving up this lineup. He throws 96 mph with his 4-seamer and his extension is the highest in MLB. Give me Gilbert to take home the W tonight!