Happy Monday morning, fellow sports investors! I hope you all had fantastic Mother's Day weekends! Friday was a nice bounce back for our MLB picks, as they finished with a 4-1 night.
That runs the yearly ledger to 70-48 for a total profit of +17 units so far. Strikeout props continue to do the heavy lifting, as they're currently sitting at 32-14 on the young season. Anyway, let's get to the card!
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This Phillies team has been smoking hot, and they currently have the best record in baseball with a mark of 28-18. Philadelphia has won 20 out of their last 25 outings to put the entire National League on notice. We've made some good coin riding the Phils and we're going to do so again this evening.
I love the starting pitcher edge we have in this one. Cristopher Sanchez often gets overlooked because of Nola, Wheeler, and Suarez, but this kid is a solid lefty who knows how to get hitters out. Sanchez is especially good at getting ground balls, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in that category.
The Phils have the better lineup in this matchup as well. They rank 7th in WRC+ against lefties, while the Mets rank just 20th. New York has the slightly better bullpen, so we'll go the first 5 route. Also, don't forget that the Mets played until late last night on Sunday Night Baseball, so they may be a bit sluggish to start this one.
Man, this Washington team has shown some serious fight so far this year. Even with a limited roster, the Nats are a respectable 19-20 this season and 12-10 on the road. The White Sox have been playing much better ball of late, but I still have them as one of the worst teams in baseball.
You have to admire how well Trevor Williams has pitched this year. He doesn't throw very hard, but he gets good movement and his ERA is an insanely low 1.93. His barrel rate is in the 85th percentile and his ground ball rate is also very good (73rd).
Even though the Chi-Sox have started to score some runs, I still think the Nats have the better lineup. Washington ranks 14th in weighted runs created against righties. Chicago ranks just 29th. Give me the Nats at this very reasonable price.
I tried my best to get this article out while +120 was available at DK, but just couldn't type fast enough. Even still, BetRivers is giving us a bargain on this Under. Mikey Lo may eat up some innings, but the advanced stats show us that he's not a big strikeout guy.
Lorenzen's K-rate is just 19.2%, which only puts him in the 29th percentile of MLB. His Whiff rate is also in the 29th percentile. Though the sample size is limited, Lorenzen's K-rate against this Cleveland lineup is just 11.4%.
The Guardians have one of the lowest K-rates in baseball against righties. They have 6 hitters with strikeout rates below 18.3%. Give me the Under!
We cashed an Under with Stripling last week, as he was ripped to shreds by the Texas Rangers offense. That same thing could very well happen tonight against the Astros. Houston has struggled to start the season, but the bats haven't been the issue.
Stripling's median K number is 3.5, so I get why the books threw out this number. However, I don't think they made enough of an adjustment for Houston's lineup, which has 7 players with K-rates below 17.8%.
Stripling doesn't have overpowering stuff, as his 15.3% strikeout rate is only in the 10th percentile. His Whiff rate is also just in the 16th percentile. Let's ride another Under!
Kirby is a tough guy to figure out, as his advanced metrics are a bit of an oxymoron. His 25.6% K-rate puts him in the 70th percentile. The 26-year-old righty gets good extension on his 95 mph sinker, but for some reason his Whiff Rate is only in the 37th percentile.
Kirby gets a tough matchup, at least strikeout wise, with the Royals tonight. Kansas City has 5 guys with K-rates below 17.2%. In a small sample, Kirby has a K-rate of just 9.1% versus the Royals in his career!
FanDuel is giving is a nice discount on this price, as the number is in the -155 to -165 range at all other US sportsbooks. Let's ride a scary under to make it a marvelous Monday! Best of luck, folks!