Ouch! Our modest 4 day winning streak went up in smoke last night, as our baseball bets stumbled to a 1-4 mark. It's a long season, and we're bound to have days like that. It's just the nature of the beast known as baseball.
To pour salt into the wound, two of our First 5 teams came back to win their respective games in the later innings. To further add to the saltiness, my car battery was dead this morning (lol). Let's bounce back with a terrific Tuesday.
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How about a little daytime baseball to get our Tuesday cranking? Stripling has done pretty well in his last couple of starts, but keep in mind that he gave up 6 earned runs to this same Rangers team back on April 10th.
Stripling only throws his fastball around 92 mph, but his slider is pretty decent. That being said, he's never had overpowering stuff. Stripling's K-rate and Whiff rate only put him in the 12th and 14th percentile in MLB.
Texas's lineup is a bit of a mystery. They strike out a ton against lefties but not much at all against righties. The Rangers have 4 guys with K-rates below 19%. Take the Under for some early action!
Man, doesn't this line seem way too low? I know the sample size is small, but Gallen has struck out 42.9% of Reds hitters in his career. Gallen has a nice K-rate of 26.3%, mainly thanks to his ability to throw 6 different pitches for strikes at any time during the count.
Gallen's 93 mph fastball looks more like 96 mph because of his excellent extension. Faithful followers of my column know that we love playing against the Reds in the strikeout department.
Cincy has 5 everyday players with K-rates over 25%. Three of those hitters strike out more than 32% of the time. This Over is a no-brainer!
I'll admit that this one is a bit scary! Gil has a live arm that produces a 96 mph 4-seamer and a plus slider at 87 mph. The young righty's K-rate is one of the best in baseball at 30.8%.
So, why in the world are we playing the Under? It's simple! Even with his dynamic stuff, Gil's median strikeout number is just 6. I think that the true number here should be 4.5 when adjusting for Houston's lineup.
Speaking of that Lastros lineup, they just don't fan a lot against righties. Houston has 7 (yes, seven) players with K-rates below 16.1%. Give me the plus money on a terrifying Under!
You may think I'm crazy for playing another Under 3.5, "but that's my story and I'm sticking to it." For those of you young bucks, that's a funny reference to an old country song by none other than Collin Raye.
Anyway, Rea pitches to contact more than just about any other Brewers pitcher. Rea's low K-rate of 16% only puts him in the 13th percentile in baseball . Also, Rea's expecting batting average allowed is .302, which means that the KC bats may knock him out of this game early.
This Royals lineup let us down last night against Bryse Wilson. However, these Kansas City hitters still don't fan very often against righties. Give me another Under!
I've got to hand it to Justin Verlander. I didn't think he'd have much left in the tank at 41 years old. Even without his best stuff, he still finds ways to get hitters out. However, I'm fading Verlander tonight against the Yanks.
As good as Verlander has been through his first 3 starts in '24, his walk rate of 10.3% could come back to bite him against this Yankees lineup. The Boys in Pinstripes rank 4th in WRC+ against righties.
Even though I'm fading Luis Gil in the K department, I think he's a shade better than Verlander in this stage of his career. Gil's expecting batting average allowed is just .138. Give me the Yanks!
Geez! We're playing on both New York teams today! Holy Cow! This Cards team continues to be a solid fade, as they dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly White Sox over the weekend. St. Louis ranks just 24th in WRC+ versus righties this season.
On the other hand, the Mets are 11th in WRC+ against righties. I think guys like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor should tee off against struggling Cards starter Miles Mikolas.
Lastly, I think Jose Butto has a good arm and I love that his expected batting average allowed is just .216. Give me the better starter and the better lineup with the Metamucils!