MLB Betting Guide: 3 Player Props and 2 Best Bets for Friday, May 3
Happy Friday, sports betting family! Kyle Harrison got us to the pay window yesterday afternoon by going over his strikeout prop number. The young lefty struggled with his control, but showed that his fastball has enough life to get big league hitters out.
Ready to get your weekend started off right? Check out our MLB betting guide below, which includes 3 player props and 2 best bets. Let's get to it!
Phillies -148 (FanDuel)
I've made some good coin riding the Fighting Phils and this looks like another good spot for them against the G-Men. I'm not too crazy about laying this much juice, but it still falls below my -150 guideline.
Aaron Nola has struck out 26 hitters over his last 3 starts, which tells me that he's found his groove. The veteran righty has a tendency to give up the long ball, but he's still one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL.
Jordan Hicks has pitched well for San Fran, but I think he could have some trouble with this Phillies lineup that ranks 7th in WRC+ against righties. The Giants offense ranks just 18th in that category. San Fran is also averaging just 2.5 runs per 9 innings against RHP their last 5 games. Give me the Phils!
Mets +118 (FanDuel)
Backing Jose Quintana at this stage of his career is a scarier than a Nightmare on Elm Street movie. That being said, Quintana is a veteran lefty who still finds ways to get hitters out, even when he's without his best stuff.
Tampa Bay's lineup ranks just 23rd in WRC+ versus southpaws, so hopefully Quintana get can through 5 innings without getting shelled. The Rays will have the edge in starting pitching with Aaron Civale on the hill. Even still, the Mets are by far the better offensive squad in this one, and I'm betting Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor can do some damage.
Another thing to like about the Metamucils is their bullpen, which I think has been the best in baseball so far. New York leads MLB in bullpen strikeout rate. Where does Tampa rank? Just 24th! Give me the Mets at a nice underdog price!
Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Ks (+118 at Caesars)
Maybe I've lost my mind, but I think Quintana can get at least 5 strikeouts tonight against the Rays! Why? It's pretty dadgum simple...Tampa Bay's lineup is flat out terrible against lefties.
The Rays have one of the highest K-rates in baseball against southpaws. Five of their everyday players have strikeout rates above 23%. Guys like Randy Arozarena and Ben Rortvedt just seem to always chase bad pitches out of the zone.
Quintana's low K-rate of 16% definitely scares me, but I'm betting his trusty old sinker will have enough movement to get us over this strikeout number.
Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Ks (-111 at FanDuel)
Lorezen is off to a decent start this year, but he's never been a prolific strikeout pitcher. The 32-year-old's K-rate of 20.3% puts him in just the 36th percentile in baseball. His stuff is decent, but he pitches to contact more often than not.
I've been pleasantly surprised with how well the Royals have played so far this season. Their hitters are being more patient at the plate and it's paying huge dividends. Kansas City just doesn't strike out a ton versus righties.
The Royals have 5 players with K-rates below 19%. Pair that with the fact that Lorezen can get walk-happy at times, and you can see why I like this Under.
George Kirby Under 5.5 Ks (-145 at DraftKings)
Kirby was lights out against Arizona over the weekend, so this wager is a tough one to make. However, this Houston lineup is one of the best in baseball at putting the ball in play. The 'Stros have the lowest K-rate in MLB versus righties at only 17%.
Seven (yes 7) Houston hitters have strikeout rates lower than 15%. That's also, by far, the best in baseball. Kirby's impressive K-rate of 28.4% is scary, but it drops to 20.7% whenever he faces off against the Astros.
I have Kirby's median strikeout number at 6, but I adjusted that down to 4.5 just because of Houston's lineup. Let's ride another Under!
Best of luck this weekend, fellow sports investors. Also, if you want some extra action on Saturday, check out my 2 picks for the Kentucky Derby.