Well well well, our MLB best bets just keep on raking in the profits. We went 4-0 for the second night in a row to run our yearly record to 52-34, which is a new season high. Winners on the Dodgers and Red Sox came through pretty easily.
Our MLB player props have also been hotter than a firecracker, as they're off to a 19-7 start to 2024. Chris Bassitt and Trevor Williams both got us to the pay window yesterday in that department. Thursday's card only has 6 games and not much value.
However, we did find a player prop that we're quite fond of in the Giants at Red Sox game. It's a 1:35 PM Eastern start time, so get those bets in early if you're tailing. Good luck, sports betting amigos!
Harrison isn't known as a big-time strikeout pitcher, but he shouldn't have any trouble racking up some Ks against Boston this afternoon. The 22-year-old can run his fastball up to 93 mph, but his extension is in the 78th percentile. That means that his 93 mph fastball will look more like 96 mph or so to the hitters.
The San Jose native has 13 starts in his young Major League career, and I have his median strikeout number at 5. So why do I like the Over in this spot? I'm so glad you asked (lol)!
The Red Sox have a good offense, but my goodness, they strike out a ton against lefties. Boston has the highest K-rate against southpaws in all of baseball. Tyler O'Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Emmanuel Valdez all strikeout over 25% of the time.
You know what else is encouraging about Harrison? His Chase Rate ranks in the 74th percentile, which means he has more strikeout potential than he's shown at times. I expect Harrison's strikeout rate of 22.6% to only improve as he gets more experience in the big leagues. Let's play the Over!
Since today's card is so light, I thought I'd go over a tip that'll hopefully help you on your baseball handicapping journey. Y'all know I love strikeout props, so let's touch on a principle that I employ when attacking this market.
This may be hard to do and I completely understand that. Most of us have busy lives with jobs, spouses, kids, etc. That being said, I can't tell you have important it is to get your handicapping done early. It's a big reason why my player props have a lifetime record of 336-261 (56%) for an ROI of 10.65%.
With MLB, we usually know who the starting pitchers are going to be the day before the game. I break down all expected pitchers and make my own strikeout numbers on the afternoon before the next day's games. So, for example, I will make my numbers on all of Friday's pitchers on Thursday.
Why is this so important? The early bird gets the worm in sports betting, especially in the wild wild West world of player props. Being ready to fire on some plus money props at 7 am gives you a serious leg up on the competition.
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