MLB Betting Preview: 2 Best Bets and Our Top Player Prop for Thursday, April 25
Wednesday was kind to the good guys, as our MLB picks went 4-1. That runs our yearly total to 39-27 on the young season. However, there's no time to celebrate because we have day baseball on tap for Thursday!
Thursday's card is pretty light, but we were able to dig up 2 best bets and a player prop. Let's make it a great day, everybody! Good luck to all!
Brewers F5 (-130) (BetMGM)
Faithful readers of my morning column just knew that this pick was coming! I will keep riding Freddy Peralta until the cows come home (a common saying here in the South). According to my numbers, it's neck and neck between Peralta and Sonny Gray for the NL Cy Young right now.
Peralta's K-rate is an incredibly good 36.7%, which means he's better than 96th of starting pitchers. The 27-year-old gets great extension on his 95 mph fastball, so it looks a lot closer to 100 mph to the hitters. Peralta's slider is also pretty dominant, and it gets him lots of swings and misses.
Mitch Keller isn't a bad pitcher for the P'Rats, but he's had kind of an up and down start to the season. Keller's sinker still has some bite, but his hard hit rate is more than a bit alarming (as is his WHIP of 1.47). Let's ride the Beer Makers in the first 5.
Dodgers -1.5 (-115) (BetMGM)
As a lifelong Braves fan, I hate the freaking Dodgers! However, I don't mind putting a few dollars of my bankroll on them when the situation warrants it. You can tell that LA is in revenge mode after dropping 2 of 3 to Washington a few days ago.
The Dodger bats exploded for 11 runs yesterday and they've taxed the heck out of the already-thin Nats bullpen. I'm a pretty big fan of Nats starter MacKenize Gore, but 5 Dodger hitters have expected batting averages above .300 against him (albeit with small sample sizes).
On paper, this is an offensive mismatch. LA ranks 3rd in the ever so important WRC+ (weighted runs created plus) category, while Washington ranks just 22nd.
I've also been impressed with Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old has a nasty splitter to go along with his 95 mph 4-seamer. Give me the Boys in Blue to win big!
Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Ks (-140) (FanDuel)
DraftKings is throwing this one out there at 8.5 with +125 juice if you'd rather go that route. However, I don't mind paying a little more for a full strikeout less. We saw last night just how K prone this Cincy lineup can be.
Wheeler has dominated this Reds lineup in the past, as his K-rate against them is 33.9%. The sick thing about Zack is that he has 6 pitches and he can throw each of them for a strike at any time (That's probably why his Chase Rate is 96th percentile). I don't envy any big league hitter that has to step in the box against Wheeler.
My numbers say that Wheeler strikes out 7 hitters against an average MLB lineup. However, the Reds have 5 players with strikeout rates above 29%. It sure seems likely that Mr. Wheeler punches out 8 or more Red Legs in this daytime start. Let's ride the Over!
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