MLB Betting Guide: 3 Player Props and 2 Best Bets for Wednesday, April 24
Our MLB bets got back to their winning ways on Tuesday night with a 3-2 performance. We're grateful for the winning night, but we were oh so close to going 4-1 or even 5-0.
The Twins couldn't find their bats until late against the White Sox and the Brewers lost by a run to the Pirates. Today's card should be loads of fun, as 4 out of the 5 plays are day games! Let's go!
D'Backs F5 (-105) (DraftKings)
I'm back on the D'Backs train, especially after their 14-run offensive outburst last night! Even though the Arizona pitching staff has taken a beating lately with injuries, their offense continues to impress. The D'Backs rank 12th in WRC+ while the Cards rank an abysmal 26th.
I've never been a big believer in Kyle Gibson, so I look to fade him whenever the opportunity makes sense. Gibby does a good job of getting ground balls but his 10% walk rate to go along with just a 14% K-rate means that he's awfully close to some blowup innings.
On the flip side, I don't mind trusting a guy like Jordan Montgomery. He was a great addition to Arizona in the offseason and I expect him to pick up the slack with Merrill Kelly on the IL. I don't trust Zona's bullpen, so let's go the first 5 innings route.
Kyle Gibson Under 4.5 Ks (-136) (BetRivers)
Might as well double up on fading Captain Kirk in this 1:15 PM start time. We already mentioned Gibson's low K-rate, which only puts him in the 8th percentile in all of baseball. His whiff rate is also painfully low and it ranks him 17th in MLB.
In 2023, Gibson had a median K rate of 4 while with the Orioles. Throw in the fact that Arizona has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball versus righties and you can see why I think this line should be 3.5 instead of 4.5.
Arizona has 5 everyday players with K-rates below 15%. Gibson may get a longer leash with the Cards bullpen getting taxed in last night's blowout, but I don't think that'll matter. Play the Under!
Blake Snell Under 6.5 Ks (-120) (BetMGM)
As scary as it is to fade last year's Cy Young winner, it's the only way to play this one. The G-Men have kept Snell on a pretty tight usage limit so far this season. He's only thrown 72 to 85 pitches during each of his 3 starts and I'm betting that the short leash continues today.
The Mets have been better than most expected (myself included) at the plate so far this season. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the Majors against lefties. Four of the Mets position players strikeout less than 20% of the time.
Snell will be fine eventually, but it's going to take him a while to find his footing. How do I know that? His current K-rate is only in the 39th percentile. Let's play another Under!
Orioles -124 (FanDuel)
The market continues to overlook just how good this Baltimore team is and I'm going to target them quite often, especially on the road with reduced prices. The Orioles offense is stacked from top to bottom, as evidenced by their No. 2 ranking in WRC+.
On the flip side, the Angels just can't seem to get anything going. Outside of Mike Trout, no one in this lineup is all that scary. Los Angeles ranks 16th in WRC+, and I don't trust their starter, Tyler Anderson, today.
Anderson has an impressive 1.42 ERA so far, but his advanced numbers suggest that some negative regression is on the way. His low K-rate of 14.3% and his high barrel rate of 10.7% are concerning, especially against the likes of Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, and Gunnar Henderson. Give me the O's!
Spencer Turnbull Over 5.5 Ks (-103) (BetRivers)
This Reds lineup is fun to watch, but man, they sure do strike out a ton! Cincy has the 3rd highest K-rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers. Guys like Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz have some pop, but they seem to strikeout at least twice per game.
Turnbull has been a nice feel-good story for Philly this season. He's 2-0 with a tiny ERA of 1.23 and his K-rate currently puts him in the 68th percentile in MLB. Turnbull only throws about 92 mph, but his sinker and sweeper are both above average.
The 31-year-old has gone over this K number in 3 of his firsts 4 starts. There's no reason to think he can't get at least 6 Ks against Cincy tonight! Good luck!
Update: Add Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Ks (-115 at HardRock)
Since Blake Snell was scratched from his start because of an injury, let's add Taillon to stay under this number tonight against Houston. The Lastros have been terrible this year, but they have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB vs. righties.
Taillon's median was 5 last year but I think the Cubs will be very careful with his usage. He's working his way back from a back problem and only threw 73 pitches in his first start last week.
Houston has 7 hitters with K-rates below 17%! Jump on this Under! Good luck!