MLB Betting Guide: 2 Best Bets and Our Top Player Prop for Wednesday, April 10

Our MLB selections suffered our first really bad night of the new season on Tuesday. The best bets went 1-2 and the player props took an o'fer at 0-2. Mama said there'd be days like this and she was NOT wrong!

That's just how it goes in this crazy world of sports betting. It's why I constantly preach about conservative money management principles. The year to date numbers are still very good at 19-10, but we need to find our footing this week, so let's get to it. (Side note: all of these are afternoon games)

Dodgers -0.5 (First 5 Innings) -120 (DraftKings)

I was lucky enough to find this at -105 earlier this morning but still think it's worth a play at the current number. Bobby Miller ran into a buzzsaw against the Cubs his last time out, but I think he bounces back just fine today against the Twinkies.

Miller hits 99 on the gun with both his fastball and his sinker, so Minny could be in for a long day at the plate. His 43.8% K-rate puts him in the 98th percentile in MLB, even though it's a small 2-start sample size. I'm playing the first 5 innings route since I don't trust the Dodgers bullpen.

There's no doubt that LA has the better offense in this one. The Boys in Blue are averaging 5.9 runs per 9 innings and they have 5 hitters with expecting slugging percentages of .407 or higher. Minnesota is only scratching out 2.9 runs per 9 so far this season. As a fan, I hate the Dodgers, but my money's on them today.

Diamondbacks -132

The D'Backs burned me on Monday night, but I'm willing to try them again today in the friendly confines of Coors Field. Arizona is off to a surprisingly slow 5-7 start to the year, but it's only a matter of time before they bust loose. They only scored 3 last night but held on for a win.

Let's be honest. Both of these starting pitchers leave a whole lot to desired. Arizona's Tommy Henry is currently 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA, even though his ground ball rate has been much better so far. Colorado's Austin Gomber has an ERA of 6.23 and a walk rate of 14.6%, which could spell trouble at Coors.

All in all, I like Arizona's lineup and bullpen much better than Colorado's. I also think this price is way too cheap on the defending NL champs, as I made this AZ -150 or so. Lay the reasonable juice with the Snakes!

Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 Ks (-132) (FanDuel)

I've only played 7 strikeout props so far this season and we're 4-3. I usually don't crank up the volume on player props until sometime in May. A larger sample size always makes me more comfortable with my projections.

All of that said, I think Kikuchi carves up this very strikeout prone Mariners lineup today. Besides being ice cold, Seattle leads the majors in K-rate (28.5%). The M's have 5 everyday players that strike out 27% of the time or higher.

Kikuchi hasn't pitched much against his former team, but he did rack up 8 Ks against Seattle on July 21st of last season. Kikuchi's median strikeout number was 6 in 2023 and I think he gets at least that many today. Let's cash it!

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